By David Crary | The Associated Press

December 19, 2021

When Westminster United Methodist Church in Houston resumed in-person services late last year, after a seven-month halt due to COVID-19, there were Sundays when only three worshippers showed up, according to the pastor, Meredith Mills.

Since then, attendance has inched back up, but it’s still only about half the pre-pandemic turnout of 160 or 170, Mills estimates.

“It’s frustrating,” she said. “People just seem to want to leave home less these days.”

Some houses of worship are faring better than Mills’ church, some worse. Polls by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows how dramatically church attendance fell during the worst of the pandemic last year, even as many say they are now returning to regular service attendance.

Among mainline Protestants, just 1% said in a May 2020 poll that they were attending in-person services at least once a week. In the new poll, 14% say they’re doing so now, compared to 16% who say they did in 2019.

Among evangelical Protestants, 37% now say they are attending services in person at least weekly, while 42% said they did that in 2019. In the May 2020 poll, just 11% said they were attending services in person that often.

Among Catholics, 26% attend in person at least weekly now, compared with 30% in 2019. In the 2020 poll, conducted as many bishops temporarily waived the obligation for weekly Mass attendance, just 5% were worshipping in person at least weekly.

At St. Ambrose Catholic Parish in Brunswick, Ohio, the six services each weekend drew a total of about 3,800 worshippers before the pandemic, according to the pastor, Bob Stec. Current weekend attendance is about 2,800, Stec says, with 1,600 or more households joining online worship.

Elsewhere, churches large and small have taken hits in attendance.

John Elkins, teaching pastor at Sovereign Grace Fellowship in Brazoria, Texas, says 25 to 30 people have attended services recently, down from around 50 before the pandemic.

“For some, I was not political enough,” he said via email. “Some wanted more activities, some just stopped going to church.”

Sovereign Grace, a Southern Baptist church, had never offered online worship before the pandemic. When in-person worship was halted for a month in 2020, leaving online worship as the only option, Elkins said he did more crisis counseling for congregation members than ever before.

At the much larger First Church of God in Columbus, Ohio, there was a near-total halt to in-person worship between March 2020 and September of this year. On two Sundays in September 2020, worshippers were invited back to the church to test the feasibility of in-person services.

“But it was obvious they were still uncomfortable — they came dressed like they were working at Chernobyl,” said the senior pastor, Bishop Timothy Clarke, evoking hazmat suits appropriate for confronting a nuclear disaster.

Pre-pandemic, the predominantly African American church held three services each weekend, including one on Saturday evenings, with average total attendance of 2,500. Now there’s a single service on Sunday, and only 500 worshippers – with masks and proof of vaccination — are allowed into a sanctuary that can seat more than 1,500.

The return to in-person worship “gives us a sense of connection and community,” Clarke said. “But you also have safety.”

At All Saints’ Episcopal Church in the New York City borough of Brooklyn, average Sunday attendance dropped from about 140 pre-pandemic to as low as 30 before climbing back, reaching 120 earlier this month. The Rev. Steven Paulikas credits a mandatory mask policy.

“Mask wearing puts people at ease about their health and allows them to do what people come to church to do — worship God,” he said.

Attendance is down sharply from pre-pandemic levels at St. Barnabas Lutheran Church in Cary, Illinois, which halted in-person, indoor worship for more than six months in 2020. Instead it held drive-in services in the parking lot.

Before the pandemic, about 115 people would attend one of two services offered on Sundays, said the pastor, Sarah Wilson. Now there’s one service, and attendance is down by more than half.

“Some families are still nervous about being in a room with others, even though most people attending are vaccinated and we require masks,” she said. “Other people have re-ordered their priorities and worship isn’t one of them.”

Friendswood United Methodist Church, in the Houston suburbs, has endured not only COVID-19 disruptions but also flooding during a winter storm last February that rendered the sanctuary unusable. It just reopened for services this month, said the pastor, Jim Bass.

Pre-pandemic, Friendswoods’ Sunday services would draw about 900 worshippers; Bass was pleased that about 650 gathered when the sanctuary reopened for high-energy, music-filled services on Dec. 5.

However, he said average attendance has been only half of that during most of the pandemic, creating a $400,000 shortfall in expected giving.

Like many houses of worship, Friendswood offered online services as an alternative to in-person attendance. He considers them a mixed blessing — a plus for elderly congregation members worried about their health, but a disincentive for others who are increasingly disconnected from the church.

“They’ve become spectators,” Bass said.

At Temple Beth El in Charlotte, North Carolina, Rabbi Asher Knight was elated that recent Hannukah celebrations drew about 300 people in person. Overall, attendance now is roughly half of pre-pandemic levels, but an improvement over periods earlier this year when only a handful of worshippers appeared.

“It was demoralizing and painful to lead worship with virtually no one present,” he said. “But in October and November, people got the booster and their children got vaccinated and they slowly started coming back.”

In September, amid a surge in COVID cases, Temple Judea in Coral Gables, Florida, observed the Jewish High Holy Days with no in-person services. So the sanctuary wouldn’t look so empty for online services, Rabbi Judith Siegal and her staff filled it with cardboard cutouts of congregation members, including children and pets.

In-person worship has now resumed, and the range of weekly attendance – 75 to 125 people – is close to pre-pandemic levels.

“We’re still wearing masks, and the seating is still spread out,” Siegal said. “But our members love it.”

Among Christians, the option of worshipping online has been embraced by many evangelical Protestants, according to the AP-NORC poll. About 3 in 10 have livestreamed services at least weekly in recent months, compared with about 1 in 10 Catholics or mainline Protestants.

Three-quarters of evangelical Protestants say they pray privately at least weekly, compared with roughly half of mainline Protestants and Catholics, the poll found.

Roughly a quarter of evangelical Protestants say they’ve recently talked by phone or video conference with a religious or spiritual leader at least a few times a month, compared with about 1 in 10 mainline Protestants and Catholics.

Some faith leaders, such as Meredith Mills, see some positives, such as more energy in the church, even with fewer worshippers.

“The ones showing up right now are the people who really want to be there,” she said. “There’s a lot of joy in the room Sunday mornings. It’s one of the reasons that, despite everything, I still love my job.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,083 adults was conducted Oct. 21-25 using a sample designed to be representative of U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Associated Press religion coverage receives support from the Lilly Endowment through The Conversation U.S. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

By Farnoush Amiri | The Associated Press

January 4, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — The fighting — so primitive and ferocious that one Capitol Police officer described it as “medieval” and another as a “trip to hell” — left more than 100 law enforcement personnel injured, some beaten with their own weapons.

Video cameras captured the violence live, with rioters clubbing officers with flag polls and fire extinguishers, even squeezing one between doors as he begged for his life.

Yet nearly a year after the Jan. 6 siege only about 4 in 10 Republicans recall the attack by supporters of then-President Donald Trump as very violent or extremely violent, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 3 in 10 Republicans say the attack was not violent, and about another 3 in 10 say it was somewhat violent.

Their views were a distinct minority as overall about two-thirds of Americans described the day as very or extremely violent, including about 9 in 10 Democrats.

The findings reflect the country’s political polarization, with a false portrayal of the siege taking hold despite extensive footage that shows the ransacking of the building in harrowing detail. Trump and some allies in Congress and conservative media have played it down, falsely characterizing the attack as a minor civil disturbance.

It’s a view that is shared by many Republicans, though few go so far as to defend the rioters themselves.

“My understanding was that a lot of it was pretty peaceful,” Paul Bender, a self-described conservative from Cleveland, told The Associated Press in a recent interview. “I’ve seen some video of the people just like marching in through a velvet rope.”

Bender, who said he didn’t keep up with the news coverage, added, “There were certainly outlier people who were not peaceful and were breaking through the windows and stuff like that, but I wasn’t aware of overt violence.”

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who blame Trump for the Jan. 6 riot has grown slightly over the past year, with 57% saying he bears significant responsibility for what took place. In an AP-NORC poll taken in the days after the attack, 50% said that.

The uptick is seen among Republicans as well, even as relatively few think Trump bears significant responsibility. Twenty-two percent say that now, up from 11% last year. Sixty percent say he had little to no responsibility.

“I don’t believe that he actively was like promoting people to do anything other than a peaceful protest,” Bender, 53, said. “However, once things got out of hand, I think that it would have been appropriate for him to have reacted sooner, whether that was a statement or going on the radio or TV or whatever.”

The insurrection was the closing act of Trump’s desperate effort to overturn his election loss to Joe Biden. After Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud were soundly rejected in the courts, he shifted his focus to the Electoral College certification on Jan. 6, publicly pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence to stop Congress from naming Biden the winner. Pence did not have that power under the law, as the vice president’s function is largely ceremonial.

Trump promoted the Jan. 6 rally that preceded the attack, predicting it would be “wild,” and in a speech that day urged his supporters to “fight like hell” as Congress convened to certify the election results. The attack halted that process for hours as rioters occupied the building.

Still, while few Republicans blame Trump, Republicans and Democrats alike overwhelmingly say that the individual rioters had a great deal or quite a bit of responsibility for their actions during the riot.

“I think there were strong supporters of President Trump that were there, but I think the people that caused the attacks might not have been true Trump supporters,” said Mary Beth Bell of Jacksonville, Florida. “Because I know a lot of Trump supporters, and they see what happened on Jan. 6 as disgusting as I do.”

About 7 in 10 Americans also say a House select committee should continue its investigation of the attack, while about 3 in 10 say it should not.

Robert Spry, a Democrat in Kingman, Arizona, said the congressional investigation is crucial for getting at the truth.

“We need a comprehensive report of that day. It has got to come to light what those people did to police and to that building,” Spry said.

The 63-year-old, who used to vote Republican but now considers himself a conservative Democrat, said the protest-turned-attack appeared chaotic at first but the committee’s findings are making it “more and more clear that it was planned in advance.”

Forty-one percent of Republicans agree with Spry that Congress should continue to investigate, while 58% say it should not.

Bell said a federal investigation into what she saw as “a terrorist attack” is appropriate, but she objects to the way the nine-member panel has been conducting the investigation since July of last year.

“They’re not listening to all the information. I feel like it’s one-sided more or less than trying to investigate everything,” she said of the committee, composed of seven Democrats and two Republicans. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi chose all the members of the committee after rejecting the choices of House GOP leadership.

Rep. Bennie Thompson, Democratic chairman of the committee, said it’s important for Americans to know that Democrats first tried to create a bipartisan commission with an equal number of members from each party. But Republicans in the Senate blocked it from passage.

“Only because Republican leadership failed this country did Speaker Pelosi have to step up and do what’s in the best interest of the country to make sure that we produce a committee that looks into the facts and circumstances of Jan. 6,” Thompson said.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,089 adults was conducted Dec. 2-7 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

By Will Weissert and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

January 10, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Heading into a critical midterm election year, the top political concerns of Americans are shifting in ways that suggest Democrats face considerable challenges to maintaining their control of Congress.

A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that management of the coronavirus pandemic, once an issue that strongly favored President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats, is beginning to recede in the minds of Americans. COVID-19 is increasingly overshadowed by concerns about the economy and personal finances — particularly inflation — which are topics that could lift Republicans.

Just 37% of Americans name the virus as one of their top five priorities for the government to work on in 2022, compared with 53% who said it was a leading priority at the same time a year ago. The economy outpaced the pandemic in the open-ended question, with 68% of respondents mentioning it in some way as a top 2022 concern. A similar percentage said the same last year, but mentions of inflation are much higher now: 14% this year, compared with less than 1% last year.

Consumer prices jumped 6.8% for the 12 months ending in November, a nearly four-decade high. Meanwhile, roughly twice as many Americans now mention their household finances, namely, the cost of living, as a governmental priority, 24% vs. 12% last year.

The poll was conducted in early December, when worries about the virus were rising as omicron took hold in the country, but before it sparked record caseloads, overwhelmed testing sites and hospitals and upended holiday travel. Still, in recent follow-up interviews with participants, including self-identified Democrats, many said those developments didn’t shake their views.

Consumer prices jumped 6.8% for the 12 months ending in November, a nearly four-decade high. Meanwhile, roughly twice as many Americans now mention their household finances, namely, the cost of living, as a governmental priority, 24% vs. 12% last year.

The poll was conducted in early December, when worries about the virus were rising as omicron took hold in the country, but before it sparked record caseloads, overwhelmed testing sites and hospitals and upended holiday travel. Still, in recent follow-up interviews with participants, including self-identified Democrats, many said those developments didn’t shake their views.

“If we say anything along the lines of, ‘Let’s wait until the pandemic dies down,’ well, this son of a gun virus has unlimited ability to mutate,” said Mary Small, a 65-year-old pharmaceutical research contractor in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, who hopes efforts to promote gun safety will take center stage in November’s elections, including her state’s race for an open Senate seat. “We might never be done with this.”

That sentiment reflects the challenge for Democrats at the onset of the election year. The party won the White House and control of Congress in 2020 with pledges to manage the pandemic more competently than the Trump administration. After initially earning high marks — roughly 70% approved of Biden’s handling of the pandemic from late February through mid-July — the virus’ persistence has undermined the new president’s message.

Administration officials acknowledge that the public is growing increasingly weary of COVID-19.

“Pandemic fatigue is real, and all of us feel it at some point,” Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said in an interview. “As a doctor, I’ve certainly seen it with my patients over the years. When you get tired and beaten down by a health problem — whether it’s a personal health problem or a broader public health challenge — it can lead to disengagement.”

The White House says COVID-19′s waning as a preeminent concern actually underscores its success rolling out preventative measures, including vaccines. It argues that economic jitters now exacerbated by the pandemic eventually will ease.

Still, with Democrats likely struggling to campaign on the idea that they’ve now defeated the virus, the other issues gaining attention among voters pose more immediate political headaches.

Judy Kunzman doesn’t blame Biden for the ongoing pandemic, calling it “just one of those events that are impossible to predict and almost as impossible to fix.” But she’s worried about continued supply chain disruptions, which affect “a lot of the other issues that we’re having: The rising food prices. The fact that I can’t buy my new car.”

“Everything has chips and the chips aren’t there,” said Kunzman, 75, of Middletown, Pennsylvania, referring to a pandemic-fueled, global shortage of microchips many electronics depend on. She’s waited months for the car she’d like to become available and noted that her sister faced difficulties finding a new cellphone.

“It’s certainly not the victory the Democrats thought it would be,” Adam Brandon, president of the conservative activist group FreedomWorks, said of the government’s virus response. “We’ll have another wave next year, and I just don’t think anyone’s going to care. I think we’re going to get to a point where everyone’s just going to have to learn to live with it. This will die with a whimper as people just lose interest.”

Many respondents in the survey said they’re not suggesting the country ignore the pandemic. But compared with last year, higher percentages of people called out other issues, including immigration among Republicans and gun control among Democrats, as pressing in 2022. Some said they were encouraged by early indications that the latest outbreak, while spreading fast, could have milder effects for many.

“I’m hopeful with omicron,” said Samantha Flowers, a 33-year-old community college teacher in Columbia, Missouri, which has its own open Senate seat on November’s ballot. “Even though more people are getting it, the sickness hasn’t been as harsh for most people. Since we’re all going to end up sick anyway, let it be one that we can recover from better.”

Dorrie Keough from Garrettsville, Ohio, said she’s vaccinated against COVID-19 and gotten a booster shot, but is still staying home as much as possible because of omicron.

“Whoever’s not in power is going to spin it in such a way to make it look worse than it might be,” said Keough, 68, whose state also has an open Senate seat this year. “As much reading as I do — and as much investigating that I do — it’s real hard for me to parse out what is actually happening versus what people are saying is happening.”

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said the key to Democrats’ 2022 success is easing COVID-19 fears — but also delivering tangible policy results. That includes passing Biden’s “Build Back Better,” the massive social spending bill that remains stalled in the Senate.

“I don’t think we’re going to win an election for lack of anxiety,” Green said, “if we’ve achieved nothing else.”

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Associated Press writer Zeke Miller contributed to this report.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,089 adults was conducted Dec. 2-7 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The Associated Press

February 24, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — There’s little support among Americans for a major U.S. role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to a new poll, even as President Joe Biden imposes new sanctions and threatens a stronger response that could provoke retaliation from Moscow.

Biden has acknowledged a growing likelihood that war in Eastern Europe would affect Americans, though he has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. Gas prices in the U.S. could rise in the short term. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has a range of tools he could use against the U.S., including cyberattacks hitting critical infrastructure and industries.

“Defending freedom will have costs for us as well, here at home,” Biden said Tuesday. “We need to be honest about that.”

Just 26% say the U.S. should have a major role in the conflict, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Fifty-two percent say a minor role; 20% say none at all.

The findings are a reminder for Biden and fellow Democrats that while the crisis may consume Washington in the coming months, pocketbook issues are likely to be a bigger priority for voters heading into the midterm elections. A December AP-NORC poll showed that Americans are particularly focused on economic issues, including rising inflation.

The Biden administration has argued that supporting Ukraine is a defense of fundamental American values and has made a concerted effort to declassify intelligence findings underscoring the dangers it sees for Ukraine and the wider European region. But the survey shows widespread public skepticism of the U.S. intelligence community.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday noted that Americans may have different interpretations of a major U.S. role and reiterated that Biden would not send the U.S. military to Ukraine, though troops have deployed to nearby NATO member countries.

“We make national security decisions based on what’s best for our country’s national security, not on the latest polling,” she said.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think the U.S. should have a major role in the conflict, 32% to 22%. Overall, the poll shows 43% of Americans now approve of Biden’s handling of the U.S. relationship with Russia, a downtick from 49% in June of last year.

Despite the clear reluctance about major involvement in the conflict, Americans are hardly looking at Russia through rose-colored glasses. The poll finds 53% say they’re very or extremely concerned that Russia’s influence around the world poses a threat to the U.S., an uptick from 45% in August 2021.

Jennifer Rau, a 51-year-old mother of three adopted teenagers who lives on Chicago’s South Side, said she listens to local public radio for her world news. But in recent days, when the news turns to Russia and Ukraine, she has started to turn it off.

“I’m so frustrated. It’s enough. We’re bombarded,” Rau said. “There are other stories in Chicago that need to be covered.”

Rau is a political independent who voted for Biden. But she believes the U.S. gets involved in foreign wars to make money. She is more concerned about rising crime in Chicago, the prevalence of guns, and systemic racism that affects her three children, who are Hispanic.

“I just feel like there’s a war going on in the United States, every day, in Chicago,” she said. “And it is really scary. And I feel like no one helps us.”

Edward Eller, a 67-year-old retiree from Shady Valley, Tennessee, said the White House needs to focus on lowering oil prices.

“They want to send millions of dollars of ours to stop a war that we have nothing to do with,” he said. “I’m sorry they’re involved in a mess, but it’s not our problem.”

The poll was conducted Friday to Monday during a period of rapidly escalating tensions, culminating with Putin recognizing the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, widely seen in the West as a step toward a wider war. Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have been locked since 2014 in fighting that’s killed 14,000 people.

Russia has massed at least 150,000 troops on three sides of Ukraine and continues to establish bridges, camps, and logistics necessary for a protracted invasion. U.S. officials believe Putin could attack Ukraine at any time. A full-on war in Ukraine could result in thousands of deaths and huge numbers of refugees fleeing for the U.S. or elsewhere in Europe.

The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian banks and oligarchs with more measures possible this week.

The White House has warned in increasingly strong words about a Russian invasion while trying to persuade Putin against launching one. It has declassified Russian troop positions and detailed allegations of “false-flag” plots that could set a pretext for a military attack on Ukraine.

However, the poll shows there remains skepticism among Americans of the U.S. intelligence community. Only 23% said they had a “great deal of confidence” in intelligence agencies. Another 52% say they have some confidence and 24% have hardly any.

U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, says the intelligence he’s received on Ukraine “has been very, very good. Sadly, it’s been accurate.” But he often hears from constituents who are uninterested in Ukraine and more focused on health care and the coronavirus pandemic.

Over time, Quigley said, he has developed comments about why Ukraine matters to the U.S.: its role as a strategic ally and a “sovereign democratic nation at Putin’s doorstep,” and how a new war could hit already disrupted technology supply chains that use exports from Russia and Ukraine.

Among Russia’s biggest threats to Americans is its capability to wage cyberwarfare. Previous Russia-linked cyberattacks have cut off services at hospitals and breached the servers of American government agencies. A ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline linked to a Russia-based hacking group temporarily shut down gas stations across the East Coast. And Russia was accused of interfering in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

“I think it’s an incredibly difficult time to message because of everything else that’s topping the list of what Americans care about. It’s hard to bump COVID, inflation, safety issues away,” Quigley said. “But you’ve got to try.”

By Will Weissert and Sarah Rankin | The Associated Press

November 3, 2021

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Tight races for governor unfolded in Virginia and New Jersey late Tuesday with the Democratic candidates narrowly trailing their Republican rivals in states that President Joe Biden easily captured a year ago.

Near midnight, the elections were still too early to call. As the vote count progressed, both races looked to be tight.

In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe addressed supporters in the Washington suburbs, vowing to “count all these votes.” Kristin Davison, an aide to Republican Glenn Youngkin, appeared onstage at a separate event and said his campaign would continue to track the incoming votes but was pleased with the way things appeared to be headed.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy was trying to win reelection against Republican former State Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli in a race that was also too early to call. If successful, Murphy would be the first Democrat reelected as the state’s governor in 44 years.

The evening’s results, though, may ultimately be interpreted as an early judgment of Biden, who captured Virginia last year by a comfortable 10-point margin and easily won New Jersey. The closeness of governor’s races indicated just how much his party’s political fortunes have changed in a short period.

The White House has been shaken in recent months by the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, a sometimes sluggish economic recovery amid the pandemic and a legislative agenda at risk of stalling on Capitol Hill.

A loss in Virginia, which has trended toward Democrats for more than a decade would particularly deepen the sense of alarm inside the party heading into next year’s midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. But Biden expressed optimism going into the evening while acknowledging that “the off-year is always unpredictable.”

In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe addressed supporters in the Washington suburbs, vowing to “count all these votes.” Kristin Davison, an aide to Republican Glenn Youngkin, appeared onstage at a separate event and said his campaign would continue to track the incoming votes but was pleased with the way things appeared to be headed.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy was trying to win reelection against Republican former State Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli in a race that was also too early to call. If successful, Murphy would be the first Democrat reelected as the state’s governor in 44 years.

The evening’s results, though, may ultimately be interpreted as an early judgment of Biden, who captured Virginia last year by a comfortable 10-point margin and easily won New Jersey. The closeness of governor’s races indicated just how much his party’s political fortunes have changed in a short period.

The White House has been shaken in recent months by the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, a sometimes sluggish economic recovery amid the pandemic and a legislative agenda at risk of stalling on Capitol Hill.

A loss in Virginia, which has trended toward Democrats for more than a decade would particularly deepen the sense of alarm inside the party heading into next year’s midterm elections, when control of Congress is at stake. But Biden expressed optimism going into the evening while acknowledging that “the off-year is always unpredictable.”

“I think we’re going to win in Virginia,” Biden said at a news conference in Scotland, where he was attending an international climate summit. “I don’t believe — and I’ve not seen any evidence that — whether or not I am doing well or poorly, whether or not I’ve got my agenda passed or not, is gonna have any real impact on winning or losing.”

Elsewhere, Democrat Eric Adams won the New York City mayoral election, and a ballot question promoted by top national progressives was defeated in Minneapolis. It had sought to reshape policing in the city, where the killing of George Floyd last year touched off sweeping demonstrations for racial justice across the nation.

But no other race received the level of attention of the Virginia governor’s campaign. That’s in part because such contests in many states have sometimes shown voter frustration with a party newly in power, foreshadowing significant turnover in Congress the following year.

In 2009, during President Barack Obama’s first year in office, Republican Bob McDonnell’s victory in Virginia previewed a disastrous midterm cycle for Democrats, who lost more than 60 House seats the following year.

The top of the Virginia Republican ticket featured a white man in Youngkin, a Black woman, Winsome Sears, running for lieutenant governor and vying to be the first woman of color to hold the post, and a Hispanic man running to be attorney general, Jason Miyares.

AP VoteCast, a survey of statewide voters, showed about half of Virginians had favorable opinions of Youngkin, compared to 55% saying they had unfavorable opinions of Trump, suggesting that the Republican gubernatorial candidate had successfully distanced himself from the former president. Youngkin was endorsed by Trump but didn’t personally appear with him, though the party is still dominated by the former president.

McAuliffe, by contrast, campaigned with his party’s top national stars, including Biden, whose last visit to Virginia came a week before Election Day. VoteCast found Biden underwater, with 48% of Virginia’s voters approving of his job performance compared to 52% disapproving — especially stark in a state he had won so handily.

VoteCast also found that Youngkin was making small gains in the suburbs, staying competitive with McAuliffe after about 6 in 10 voters in the same areas backed Biden over Trump last year.

In Norfolk, along the state’s Atlantic coast, 29-year-old Cassandra Ogren said she voted for McAuliffe in part because of his support for abortion rights and her concern about restrictions recently enacted in Texas, where a new law mostly bans the procedure. But she was also motivated by Youngkin’s ties to Trump.

“Anyone endorsed by President Trump is not someone I want representing me,” Ogren said.

VoteCast found that Virginia voters saw the economy as the race’s top issue, followed by the coronavirus pandemic and schools. The significance many voters placed on schools seemed like good news for Youngkin. His pledge to ensure parents have greater say in what their kids are taught was a centerpiece of his campaign — possibly foreshadowing similar arguments GOP candidates will use across the country next year.

Youngkin has decried “critical race theory,” an academic framework that centers on the idea that racism is systemic in the nation’s institutions and that they function to maintain the dominance of white people. In recent months, it has become a catch-all political buzzword for any teaching in schools about race and American history.

The issue took on greater weight after McAuliffe said during a debate that “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”

Bennett White, 24, a Youngkin voter in Norfolk, said he didn’t want “our next generation of leaders to be looking at their peers in the lens of race.”

“I just want to make sure that my mom is safe in the classroom,” said White whose mother is a teacher, “and that her ideals and everyone’s ideals are protected, and we’re not turning into brainwashing academies.”

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Associated Press writers Ben Finley in Norfolk, Virginia, Hank Kurz in Richmond, Virginia, Alexandra Jaffe in McLean, Virginia, and Jill Colvin in New York contributed to this report.