By Josh Boak and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

July 26, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden is banking on the idea of making life more affordable for middle-class families — and that’s where the recent bout of inflation poses both a political and an economic risk.

The U.S. economy may be poised for the fastest growth since 1984, but many Americans are not feeling all that confident about the economy, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Republican lawmakers have attacked the Biden administration over inflation as the country reopened from the coronavirus pandemic, and feelings about the economy are settling along partisan lines.

Fewer than half, 45%, judge the economy to be in good shape, while 54% say it’s in poor shape. Views are similar to what they were in AP-NORC polls in June and in March, despite increases in vaccinations and the flow of aid from Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. The results suggest that Americans not only filter their thoughts about the economy through their politics but also see uncertainty as the country is still 6.8 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels.

John Novak, a 52-year-old school maintenance worker from Hudson, Wisconsin, is tired of seeing higher gasoline prices and six-month waits to buy a refrigerator. He blames the size of the aid package.

“Everything just costs more, and no one’s really making more other than if you get government money, which I did get some, but I’d rather have prices lower,” said Novak, who voted for President Donald Trump last year. “It’s a tough spot. We’re kind of coming out of this pandemic and then when you pour too much money in you just can’t get enough of what you want.”

The Biden administration is keenly aware that inflation is a potent weapon that could be used politically against Democrats. While pledging to stay vigilant against price increases, officials say that the recent burst reflects the complex nature of restarting an economy that had been shuttered because of the pandemic and that inflation will only be elevated temporarily as a result.

There are some early signs of inflation lessening as the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell during the first 15 days of July. Meanwhile, the economy has been adding nearly 605,000 jobs a month since Biden became president and economic growth is tracking above 7%.

“There’s no better way to contradict false messaging than by posting strong performance,” said Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “When you’re in the midst of a recovery with these kinds of numbers, I think it makes it harder for people on the other side to paint a false version of reality.”

Still, political identity is infusing views on the economy. About 6 in 10 Democrats call the economy good, while three-quarters of Republicans say conditions are poor.

That spills over to how Americans are judging Biden’s handling of the economy, with 52% approving and 47% disapproving overall. Biden’s approval rating overall is somewhat higher, at 59%, as is his approval rating for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 66%.

About 8 in 10 Democrats, but only about 1 in 10 Republicans, approve of Biden on the economy. Republicans are somewhat more likely to approve of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic (about 3 in 10 do) and even issues like health care and infrastructure (about 2 in 10 do).

Federal Reserve officials have estimated that the economy could grow at roughly 7% this year. But the U.S. central bank is also tasked with keeping inflation at a 2% target, and there are signs that the pressures pushing up prices have yet to fade as there are limited supplies of houses, autos and the raw materials used by many manufacturers.

The solid demand is supposed to lead to additional supply, which can then help inflation ease. But the outlook for inflation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell considers to be temporary has become somewhat more hazy. Consumer prices jumped 5.4% for the year ended in June. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, they’re up 4.5%, the biggest increase since 1991.

“We don’t have another example of the last time we reopened a $20 trillion economy,” Powell told the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee this month. “We’re humble about what we understand.”

Joseph Smith, 72 and a retiree in Alexandria, Virginia, said he worries that the constant focus on inflation by Powell and Republicans has been spooking consumers.

“The Fed is sort of hindering the economy by talking about inflation all the time,” said Smith, who supported Biden last year and feels the president has brought “real stability” to the government with his straight talk on the coronavirus and the economy.

Republican lawmakers have blamed Biden’s spending for the inflation and say his plans for another $4.1 trillion in new spending to be paid for through taxes on the wealthy and corporations will only cause prices to keep rising. They frame it as a return to the runaway price increases of the 1970s, even though economists who are concerned about inflation say that’s not the case. But the message is connecting with Republican voters.

“As Joe Biden’s inflation crisis rages, he just can’t stop fueling it with more reckless government spending,” said Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Americans are experiencing 1970s-style inflation again, and it’s because of Joe Biden’s failed economic policies.”

Those kinds of criticisms are being echoed by voters in a sign of the challenge before Biden as he tries to broaden the appeal of his policies.

Gregory Holman, 58, a hotel property manager in Grants Pass, Oregon, said he couldn’t find an affordable used car. He said it was the fault of too much government spending and graded Biden accordingly.

“I’d give him an F,” Holman said. “He’s just a failure at everything he does.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,308 adults was conducted July 15-19 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

By Jill Colvin and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

July 27, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Republicans want former President Donald Trump to have at least some influence over their party’s direction even as many who side with the GOP say they are uneasy about its future.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research captures widespread unease among Republicans over everything from the direction of the country to the state of American democracy and, in particular, President Joe Biden. Just 15% approve of the way Biden is handling his job, and 66% continue to say the Democrat was illegitimately elected, a lie perpetuated by Trump that underscores his persistent grip on GOP voters.

Republicans have plenty of concern about their own party, too. Fewer than half of Republicans, 41%, say they are optimistic about the GOP’s future. Just 13% say they are “very” optimistic. And one third, 33%, say they are pessimistic.

Just a few seats shy of majorities in the House and the Senate, Republican leaders hope they are within striking distance of retaking control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. But the findings about the party’s lukewarm optimism could be an early warning sign of lagging enthusiasm among Republican voters, particularly without Trump on the ballot after he helped lift congressional candidates in 2020.

That’s despite the fact history has shown the president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections and despite the general enthusiasm about the party’s long list of potential 2024 candidates.

Some Republicans in especially competitive states said they are increasingly disillusioned with the political process.

“It’s frustrating,” said Dennis Herzog, 36, a contractor who lives in Reedsville, Wisconsin, of the constant bickering between the parties. While he describes himself as a staunch Republican, he said he’s disenchanted by “the whole system in general.”

“It’s nonstop,” he said. “I don’t care who is in office. Just do what’s right for the people and stop picking certain sides.”

Republican leaders have spent much of this year trying to rile up voters, pointing to concerns about inflation and stoking culture wars over issues including immigration, election conspiracy theories and critical race theory, an academic framework that examines history through the lens of racism.

That’s doing little to appeal to people like 28-year-old Nicholas Blethrow, a Republican who lives in Orange County, California, and described the state of his party as “pretty much a disaster.”

Blethrow, who did not vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020, said he was frustrated by his party’s ongoing efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which he calls “ridiculous,” along with some of its members’ opposition to COVID-19 vaccinations and continued embrace of the former president.

“Clearly there’s a lot of people that enjoy him. But I don’t think it’s good,” he said.

Other Republicans disagree. The poll shows that Trump remains a commanding figure in the party. While most former presidents tend to cede the spotlight after leaving office, Trump has continued to assert his power, holding rallies, making endorsements and teasing a 2024 comeback run.

While 60% of the public overall has an unfavorable view of Trump, 76% of Republicans view him favorably. And most would like to see him maintain at least some degree of influence over the GOP going forward.

Nearly half of Republicans, 47%, say that Trump should exert “a lot” of influence over the future of the party, and another 34% say he should have “a little” influence. Just 18% say Trump should have none at all.

“I think he did a lot of good for the party,” said George Hunter, 61, who lives in Washington state outside Seattle and runs an online store. Hunter was among the minority of Republicans who said he felt optimistic about the party’s future given what he sees as Democrats’ failures on crime, foreign policy and the economy and his expectation that Republicans will sweep contests next November.

“After the next election, I think things will be better. I think the Democrats will lose their majorities. That way Biden will get less done than he wants,” he said.

For Herzog, who describes the current political situation as “quite the mess,” pessimism is driven, in part, by concerns about the economy, especially inflation, and the rising cost of his supplies. He said he knows of businesses that are talking about closing their doors because they can’t find workers and he doesn’t understand why the government keeps sending out additional relief payments.

But he’d also like to see his party embark on a new direction.

“I think there needs to be a switch in the Republican Party,” he said. “There’s got to be a happy medium between the old schoolers,” he said, and a new generation. “You have to find some middle ground.”

As for the 2020 election, the poll shows that 62% of Republicans say it’s “extremely” or “very” important that investigations into the election continue, even though no substantiated evidence has emerged to support Trump’s claims of mass election fraud, which have been dismissed by numerous judges, including some he appointed, state election officials and his own attorney general.

Just 38%, in contrast, say it’s “extremely” or “very” important to continue investigations into the events of Jan. 6, when a group of Trump’s supporters violently stormed the Capitol building, trying to halt the transition of power.

Like Democrats, few Republicans, only 10%, say democracy is working “extremely” or “very” well in the country today. But Republicans are more negative than Democrats; 63% of Republicans say democracy is not working well.

Just 17% say they think the nation is headed in the right direction.

As for other Republican leaders, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces mixed reviews from his party, viewed favorably by only about 4 in 10 Republicans; roughly as many dislike him. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is more popular than not with Republicans, though about half say they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who voted for Trump’s second impeachment and has since emerged as one of his top Republican critics, has the inauspicious distinction of being rated favorably by more Democrats than Republicans, 47% versus 21%.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who has drawn headlines with her incendiary comments and conspiracy peddling, remains largely an unknown, even within her own party. While 29% of Republicans have a favorable opinion, 48% say they don’t know enough about her to say.

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AP Director of Public Opinion Research Emily Swanson contributed to this report.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,308 adults was conducted July 15-19 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

By Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

July 28, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Many Americans believe their communities are doing a good job meeting the needs of older adults, but white people may be better equipped than people of color to age within their communities, according to a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll finds more Americans think their area is doing well rather than poorly in providing access to resources and services for aging adults, including health care, healthy food, transportation and at-home support.

But white people are more likely than people of color to say their community does well in offering health care for older adults generally, as well as urgent care, primary care and physical therapy specifically. White Americans also are more positive than non-white Americans in rating their communities’ access to grocery stores, outdoor spaces, libraries and other amenities.

The poll finds community assessments also differ by household income, with Americans in lower-income households more likely than those earning higher incomes to say their communities are lacking across many resources and services.

Overall, 46% of Americans say their area is doing a good job providing access to health care for older adults, compared with 15% saying it does a poor job. Fifty-two percent of white people say their community does a good job, compared with 37% of people of color. Many people of color say either a poor job, neither or they don’t know. Uncertainty was an issue for many of the resources asked about on the poll.

Sarah Szanton, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s nursing school, described aging as “the sum of people’s life experiences across the course of their life.”

“There’s certainly some randomness, there’s certainly some genetics involved, but, in general, aging is a health equity matter,” she said.

The poll finds just 34% of Americans say their communities do a good job offering in-home support services for older adults, compared with 14% saying it does a bad job. Another 31% say they don’t know. White people are somewhat more likely than people of color to say they have good in-home services accessible, 37% to 27%.

The new findings follow AP-NORC polling earlier this year that found a majority of Americans want the federal government to help Americans age in their own homes, which continues to be the option most prefer.

Dan Carrow has lived in New York City for more than 30 years, and he knows he wants to continue to live as close to a major city as possible as he gets older. But in his Washington Heights neighborhood, he feels the onus is on people to do research themselves to get health care and plan for the future.

“Because I live in New York, I have access to good health care. But you have to do all the research yourself,” said Carrow, who says he feels lucky to have family members in the health care industry. “I think if I didn’t have my family background and my education, I would be in bad shape.”

Carrow, an African American man, knows his neighborhood features world-class Columbia University — “the best medical care you can get” — but doesn’t think there is enough outreach to or understanding of the predominantly non-white neighborhood.

“I think what the medical profession has to start working on is building trust with individual people,” Carrow said. “Because people basically don’t trust doctors, especially people of color because of the past — our relationship we’ve had with them over the past century. So that’s how come many times people don’t go to a doctor till they’re like, you know, dancing around the doorway of death.”

Szanton compared funding for aging-in-community initiatives to funding for schools: localized and therefore disparate. Instead, she thinks initiatives should be statewide, “so that the people in the more low-income counties and cities don’t have fewer resources to be able to support aging-in-community initiatives.”

She pointed to decades of disinvestment in specifically majority African American neighborhoods as illustration of the problem.

“That snowballs, where the lack of wealth leads to more lack of wealth,” she said. “Then because community resources for aging are usually neighborhood or city or county based, those resources are also less.”

Jacqueline Angel, a professor of health, social policy and sociology at the University of Texas, said demographics factor into a person’s “physical, mental, social and even spiritual and emotional well-being.” And because disadvantages accumulate over time, Angel said, they are too wide for aging programs — Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — to fully close the gap.

“One has to provide the resources that will be able to curb the disparities in health, income and overall quality of life,” she said. “It’s more critical now than ever to be able to do that given the pace of our aging racial minority population.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,071 adults was conducted June 10-14, with funding from The SCAN Foundation. It used a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

By Bill Barrow and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

July 30, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Six months into Democrats’ unified control of Washington, most Democrats are on board with President Joe Biden and where he’s trying to take the country — even if they’re divided on how to get there.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds 6 in 10 Democrats say they’re optimistic about their party’s future, and Democrats nearly universally — 92% — approve of the way Biden is handling his job. The Democratic president is viewed favorably by both liberals and moderates.

But the party is divided over the best strategy for accomplishing its agenda. About half say Democrats should compromise with Republicans, even if it means giving up things they want. The other half say Democrats should stick to their positions no matter what, even if it means they would have to find a way to pass laws without Republican support.

The numbers reflect a division playing out on Capitol Hill, as Biden and other Democratic leaders prioritize a bipartisan infrastructure bill over other Democratic initiatives less ripe for compromise — including voting rights, immigration and climate change. Although Biden has faced criticism over the strategy, the numbers suggest even displeased Democrats aren’t turning on him.

“He’s started an agenda that, if he succeeds, will move us forward so much and help most people,” said Anjanette Anderson, a 47-year-old Democrat in Fort Walton Beach, Florida.

But Anderson argued party leaders shouldn’t let Republican opposition slow them down. “Republicans didn’t want to work across the aisle time and time again,” she said of recent years. “If we’re going to continue to move in a direction that helps the many instead of the few, Democrats are going to have to push.”

Despite the strong approval for Biden and two-thirds of Democrats saying the country is headed in the right direction, the poll finds 53% of Democrats say they are pessimistic about U.S. politics generally. Just 27% say they are optimistic, while another 19% hold neither view.

Interviews with Democratic voters show those concerns are rooted in a deep distrust of Republicans, especially in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump as Congress convened to certify Biden’s victory.

Those Democrats cast the GOP as a threat to democracy. They pointed especially to Republican obstruction of federal election and voting rights bills, the lack of GOP participation in an official inquiry into the Jan. 6 insurrection and the struggle to pass an infrastructure program — though a bipartisan breakthrough on infrastructure could now be on the cusp of clearing the 50-50 Senate.

“We could have another Jan. 6 kind of event” after the next presidential election, Anderson said. “Or we could have states that just say, ‘Hey, we know how our people voted, but we’re going to give our electoral votes to another guy anyway.’ That’s scary.”

The poll comes after a relative honeymoon period at the outset of Biden’s presidency. Democrats passed a nearly $2 trillion pandemic response package without any Republican votes, and the administration, working with state governments, dramatically expanded distribution of COVID-19 vaccines developed while Trump was in office.

Democrats interviewed by the AP cited those accomplishments, along with displacing Trump’s bombastic leadership style, as reasons for their optimism about the party.

Diana Hilburn, a 56-year-old in College Park, Georgia, a suburb of Atlanta, praised the health insurance aid included in the American Rescue Plan.

“I was able to get on an exchange plan because of that,” she said, recounting how she lost health insurance after being laid off as an Atlanta airport shuttle driver at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic. She didn’t qualify for Medicaid because Georgia is one of 12 Republican-run states that still hasn’t expanded Medicaid since Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act in 2010.

Hilburn hasn’t been rehired for her driver job yet, but she’s confident about the economy long term and Democrats’ stewardship of it. Still, she warned there’s no guarantee of success for all Americans, including those who’ve found work.

“Everything’s picking up, but so many places want to pay $9 an hour, $10 an hour — and my rent is up to $650 a month. A lot of folks have to pay more than that,” she said of businesses around her in Clayton County.

That’s why Hilburn doesn’t think Democrats should waste time trying to compromise with Republicans in Congress. She noted that Democrats want to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour but face GOP opposition and that many Republican governors, including her own, suspended weekly unemployment insurance boosts Congress initially approved during the pandemic.

“Do what they’ve been doing to us. Just move it through,” said Hilburn, noting Sen. Mitch McConnell’s success in blocking Democratic priorities as minority leader and speeding through judicial confirmations when he had a GOP Senate majority. “Voters,” Hilburn said, “will understand” a Democratic turnabout.

Eric Staab, a 43-year-old Democrat who teaches high school government in Topeka, Kansas, argues for a less confrontational approach.

“We’re just so angry and divided and partisan,” said Staab. Democratic leaders should “have hard deadlines” for “good-faith negotiations,” he said, but “you have to put out the olive branch.”

So far, Democrats remain positive in their assessments of the party’s leadership on Capitol Hill. Besides high ratings for Biden, 81% of Democrats have a favorable view of Vice President Kamala Harris. They’re more likely to have a favorable than unfavorable opinion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (67% to 23%) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (53% to 16%).

Party faithful, meanwhile, more harshly assess Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who opposes changing the Senate filibuster rule that allows Republicans to block any bill that doesn’t have 60 votes. A third of Democrats view Manchin negatively, compared with about 2 in 10 with a positive view; about half say they don’t know enough to say.

“It’s one thing to watch the Republicans do this, but now we have Joe Manchin out there basically helping them,” said Walter Russell of Olanta, South Carolina, referring to the blockade of Democrats’ agenda.

A 70-year-old military veteran, Russell described himself as a moderate but argued the GOP has escalated its opposition beyond acceptable levels. “I don’t understand how Manchin doesn’t see that,” he said.

But in Manchin’s home state, Baron Walker, a 43-year-old Democrat from Davisville, summed up the political calculations that Democrats are depending on: Democratic voters aren’t likely to blame them first.

Walker is critical of Manchin but far more so of Republicans. Lies about the results of the 2020 elections have done “lasting damage” to democracy, he said.

“There’s so many conspiracy theories around everything,” he said.

And no matter how disappointed he is with Manchin, Walker said that’s his only option in West Virginia. “I don’t see any scenario where I’d vote anything other than Democrat,” Walker said, “including staying home.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,308 adults was conducted July 15-19 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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Barrow reported from Atlanta.

By Emily Swanson and Tom Murphy | The Associated Press

August 10, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans have high trust in doctors, nurses and pharmacists, a new poll finds.

Researchers say that trust could become important in the push to increase COVID-19 vaccinations, as long as unvaccinated people have care providers they know and are open to hearing new information about the vaccines.

At least 7 in 10 Americans trust doctors, nurses and pharmacists to do what’s right for them and their families either most or all of the time, according to the poll from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll shows high levels of trust among both Democrats and Republicans; men and women; and white, Black and Hispanic Americans.

When people get treatment or a service from a doctor or a nurse, they start building trust and then tend to return to those providers when they need more help or have questions about a health issue, said Michelle Strollo, a senior vice president in NORC’s Health Research Group.

“Public health officials should really look to doctors, nurses and pharmacists to be the megaphone to deliver the message of the importance of getting vaccinated,” she said.

Polling from the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation in June also showed people trusted doctors for information about the vaccine more than other sources like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert.

COVID-19 case levels are soaring across the country, driven by a highly contagious virus variant that mostly infects unvaccinated people, according to public health experts. President Joe Biden and others have pleaded with Americans to get the shots.

The COVID-19 vaccines have been widely available since spring, and the CDC reports that 71% of U.S. adults have received at least one dose.

Recently retired cardiologist Paul Vaitkus said he encouraged many of his patients, some of whom have been seeing him for years, to get the vaccine due to their health conditions. He thinks they listened to him.

“As a doctor, my patient knows me and they sized me up eye to eye,” the 62-year-old Gurnee, Illinois, resident said. “They know that I’m honest.”

Care providers could help encourage people to get vaccines, but the country’s fragmented health care system presents an obstacle.

Vaccination rates are low among the uninsured, noted Liz Hamel, director of public opinion and survey research for Kaiser.

“Those are the same people who are less likely to be in regular health care, to have those interactions with doctors and providers,” she said.

The same holds true for younger adults, who also have low vaccination rates. They are less likely to see a doctor regularly or get preventive care like annual checkups.

Plus, just getting someone into a doctor’s office or drugstore offers no guarantee that the patient will become vaccinated.

Hamel noted that attitudes toward the shots have become so politicized that people who trust a doctor to give them advice about other issues may not be open to hearing more about the vaccines.

“I think some people, based on politics, have completely closed off,” she said.

Doctors earn broad trust from the American public, and a slim majority are in favor of federal funding for increasing the number of doctors, according to the AP-NORC poll. But only about 2 in 10 support government funds for increasing doctors’ pay. Half of Americans say doctors are paid about right.

However, most Americans, including majorities of both Democrats and Republicans, think nurses and health care aides are underpaid.

Even as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to plague the U.S., the poll finds no significant shifts in opinions about health care policies, including the Affordable Care Act, a single payer health system or a public option.

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Murphy reported from Indianapolis.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,071 adults was conducted from June 10 to June 14. It used a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.