By Jill Colvin and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

February 5, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of Americans say former President Donald Trump bears at least some blame for the Capitol insurrection, and about half say the Senate should vote to convict him at the end of his impeachment trial.

That’s according to a survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that also finds many Republicans continue to believe — contrary to all evidence — that President Joe Biden’s election was illegitimate.

It’s the latest sign that Trump’s monthslong disinformation campaign could have long-lasting ramifications for Biden as he tries to govern a fractured country and underscores the deep partisan divides that will outlast Trump’s presidency. But it also shows some degree of consensus, with even many Republicans saying that Trump was at least partially responsible for his supporters’ deadly storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6 in a bid to overturn the results of the November election.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe that Trump bears at least a moderate amount of responsibility for the breach of the U.S. Capitol, including half who say he bears a great deal or quite a bit. Just over a third say he bears little to no responsibility.

Most Republicans absolve him of guilt, but about 3 in 10 think he bears at least a moderate amount of blame for the events.

Fewer Americans, 47%, believe the Senate should vote to convict Trump after his impeachment trial, which begins next week. Another 40% say he should not be convicted, and 12% aren’t sure. Trump last month became the first president in the nation’s history to be impeached twice by the House, but it appears unlikely Democrats will have enough votes to convict him in the upper chamber.

Opinions on the trial fall along partisan lines, with more than 8 in 10 Democrats saying the Senate should convict, versus only about 1 in 10 Republicans. While those who believe he bears a large amount of responsibility generally believe he should be convicted, among those who say he is only moderately responsible, significantly more say the Senate should vote against than for conviction, 54% to 19%.

“I think it’s kind of ridiculous. Are we going to start impeaching all the past presidents we don’t like?” said Bill Stokes, 67, who lives in Casper, Wyoming, and voted for Trump in November, describing him as the “lesser of evils.”

While Stokes allowed that Trump “perhaps” bore some responsibility for the events of Jan. 6, he said, “I don’t think it warrants impeachment. Maybe a censure, if that.”

“I really don’t feel like he incited a riot. He asked them to go down there for a peaceful protest. Maybe he didn’t understand mob psychology, but I think his responsibility there — they’re trying to put more on him than there really is,” he said.

In interviews, other Republican respondents faulted Trump for egging on the crowd — and some felt he should be held accountable in some way — but didn’t think impeachment was the answer given that Trump has already left office and, they said, was unlikely to ever be elected again.

At the same time, the poll finds that many Republicans agree with the idea, championed by those who stormed the Capitol, that Biden’s election was illegitimate. Overall, 66% of Americans say Biden was legitimately elected president, but 65% of Republicans say he was not.

They include Dolores Mejia, 71, who lives in Peoria, Arizona, and maintains that, had all the votes been counted, “I think Trump would have won, I really believe that.”

A lifelong Democrat who switched her party registration to vote for Trump in November, Mejia cited everything from debunked conspiracies to friends’ accounts to explain her reservations.

“I don’t care what the Democrats say. They stole the election. There’s just no way, with the amount of support we were seeing, watching the rallies on TV, things like Truckers for Trump … there is no way they did not steal the election,” she contended.

Others were more ambivalent. Mark Richardson, a Republican who lives in High Point, North Carolina, and voted for Trump twice, said he understood why measures had been taken to allow for mail-in voting during the coronavirus pandemic but argued they should never be used again.

“It leaves too much room for questions,” he said. But Richardson, 39, who works in the electric vehicle industry, said the question of “legitimacy” is more nuanced.

“So I guess it depends on how you frame the question,” he said. “Do I think every vote he received was legitimate? No. But do I think he’s the president, legitimately? Yes.”

“Joe Biden’s the president,” he said. “And that’s a-OK with me.”

GOP officials in several battleground states that Biden carried, including Arizona and Georgia, have said the election was fair. Trump’s claims were roundly rejected in the courts, including by judges appointed by Trump and by his former attorney general, William Barr.

In general, the poll shows that Americans have a more negative than positive view of Trump’s presidency and its impact on the country, but opposition is limited among Republicans. Only 36% of Americans overall say Trump was a great or even a good president, while 50% say he was a poor or terrible one.

By contrast, in late 2016, as Barack Obama was leaving office, 52% of Americans called him a good or great president, while 28% said he was poor or terrible.

While most Republicans say Trump was a good or great president, 15% call him just average and 11% say he was a poor or terrible president.

Americans are more mixed about how the Trump years impacted them personally. In fact, more call themselves better off than worse off than they were when Trump took office, by a margin of 38% to 27%.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,055 adults was conducted Jan. 28-Feb. 1 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/.

By Julie Pace, Hannah Fingerhut, and Nathan Ellgren | The Associated Press

February 4, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two weeks into a new administration, a majority of Americans say they have at least some confidence in President Joe Biden and his ability to manage the myriad crises facing the nation, including the raging coronavirus pandemic.

Overall, 61% approve of Biden’s handling of his job in his first days in office, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Though the bulk of Biden’s support is from fellow Democrats, about a quarter of Republicans say they approve of his early days in office.

Even at a moment of deep national divisions, those numbers suggest Biden, as with most of his recent predecessors, may enjoy something of a honeymoon period. Nearly all modern presidents have had approval ratings averaging 55% or higher over their first three months in office, according to Gallup polling. There was one exception: Donald Trump, whose approval rating never surpassed 50% in Gallup polls, even at the start of his presidency.

Biden’s standing with the public will quickly face significant tests. He inherited from Trump a pandemic spiraling out of control, a sluggish rollout of crucial vaccines, deep economic uncertainty and the jarring fallout of the Jan. 6 riot on Capitol Hill. It’s a historic confluence of crises that historians have compared to what faced Abraham Lincoln on the eve of the Civil War or Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the depths of the Great Depression.

Biden’s advisers know that the new president will be quickly judged by Americans on his handling of the pandemic, which has killed more than 450,000 people in the U.S. He’s urgently pressing Congress to pass a $1.9 trillion relief package that would include funds for vaccine distribution, school reopening and state and local governments buckling under the strain of the pandemic.

“We have to go big, not small,” Biden told House Democrats on Tuesday. He’s signaled that he’s open to trimming his $1.9 trillion proposal but not as far as some Republicans are hoping. A group of GOP senators has put forward their own $618 billion package.

About three-quarters of Americans say they have at least some confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the pandemic, while about a quarter have hardly any. Still, that confidence is measured — no more than about 4 in 10 say they have “a great deal” of trust in Biden to handle any issue asked about in the poll.

From the start, Biden has sought to differentiate his approach to the pandemic, and governing as a whole, from Trump’s. He’s empowered public health officials and other experts, putting them at the forefront of briefings on COVID-19 and other policy issues, unlike the former president, who often clashed with members of his coronavirus task force.

According to the AP-NORC survey, about 8 in 10 have at least some trust in Biden to incorporate the advice of experts and advisers into his decision-making. Roughly three-quarters have a great deal or some confidence in Biden’s ability to effectively manage the White House.

A December AP-NORC poll showed that Americans identified the pandemic and the economy as their top priorities for the U.S. government in 2021. The two issues are directly linked, with the pandemic battering businesses across the country and creating economic uncertainty as states and cities grapple with public health restrictions.

About two-thirds of Americans say they have at least some confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the economy and jobs. That’s similar to his ratings from the public on his approach to health care, race relations and climate change.

In his first two weeks in office, Biden has signed a blizzard of executive orders on those policy priorities and others, largely aimed at undoing actions of the Trump administration. Among them: rejoining the Paris climate accord, pausing new oil and gas leases on public lands and reversing a Trump-era travel ban on people from several majority-Muslim countries.

But executive actions are inherently limited in scope, and Biden needs Congress to step in to help him pass the more sweeping aspects of his agenda. He has the narrowest of Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate, meaning he’ll either need some Republican support for his agenda or have to push through rule changes that would allow legislation to pass with fewer votes.

Just 20% of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in Biden’s ability to work with Republicans in Congress, though another 45% say they are somewhat confident.

Tom Tierney, 65, of Richland, Washington, voted for Biden in November and said he’s skeptical about Republicans’ willingness to work with the new president. He urged Biden to not waste time if GOP leaders are holding up his agenda.

“I think that Biden’s going to have to eventually play hardball and say, you know what, you guys don’t really want to compromise,” said Tierney, who described himself as a moderate independent.

Biden was already facing enormous headwinds after winning the election, but the crises facing the country escalated after the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. The insurrection revealed the extent to which Trump’s false attacks on the integrity of the election had resonated with his supporters and the threat that posed to the nation’s democratic institutions.

In his inaugural address, Biden noted both the durability and the fragility of American democracy, a particularly pointed message given that he was speaking from the same Capitol steps that had been overrun by the pro-Trump mob just two weeks earlier.

A majority of Americans — 70% — say they think Biden respects the country’s democratic institutions.

Miguel Castillo, 39, of Columbus, Georgia, voted for Trump in 2020 and hasn’t been impressed with Biden’s opening moves. Yet he said he’s hopeful for the sake of the country that the new president succeeds.

“Whatever he does, it affects all of us as Americans,” Castillo said. “I hope that his presidency is a good presidency. I don’t wish him to fail. I honestly do not. ”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,055 adults was conducted Jan. 28-Feb. 1 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/.

By Nicholas Riccardi and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

January 19, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — Containing the coronavirus outbreak and repairing the economic damage it has inflicted are the top priorities for Americans as Joe Biden prepares to become the 46th president of the United States, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Overall, 53% of Americans name COVID-19 as one of the top five issues they want the government to tackle this year, and 68% mention in some way the economy, which is still reeling from the outbreak. In an open-ended question, those priorities far outpace others, like foreign affairs, immigration, climate change or racial inequality. The findings suggest Biden’s political fate is riding on his administration’s response to the pandemic.

“I just want to be through it,” said Kennard Taylor, a 20-year-old Detroit college student who had to move back home when the pandemic shuttered his campus and who lost his grandfather to the disease. “There are other things, but I’d say right now this is the priority for me.”

The Democratic president-elect last week unveiled a proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package and has vowed to provide 100 million vaccination shots in his first 100 days, an ambitious goal that his health team is already scrambling to meet.

The poll was taken in December, before a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol seeking to halt the certification of Biden’s election on Jan. 6, leading the U.S. House to impeach President Donald Trump for a second time. It also pre-dates the record number of coronavirus deaths this month, which has seen more than 4,000 die of the disease in several 24-hour periods, and a slow and bumpy start to vaccine distribution.

In a reflection of the series of national traumas from last year, another issue moved sharply up Americans’ priority list for 2021 — racial inequality. After a year in which the country was convulsed by the May killing of George Floyd by a white Minneapolis police officer and the ensuing Black Lives Matters demonstrations, 24% cited race relations as a priority. In contrast, only 10% cited it in late 2019 as a priority for 2020.

Forty-three percent of Black Americans mention racism and racial inequality as a priority for 2021, compared with 22% of white Americans and 21% of Hispanics.

Still, even that issue takes a backseat to COVID-19 among some. “There’s no point reforming police and racism if we’re all dead,” said Aaron Williams, a 34-year-old African-American construction worker in Rosenberg, Texas.

“Nothing is going to pick up or change unless we get rid of the virus first,” said Williams, who lost his job last year after the virus reached the country and has been making do with temporary work.

Democrats like Williams were more likely to cite the coronavirus as an issue than Republicans like Clinton Adams, a school custodian in Florida. Even so, the impact of the virus dominates Adams’ top issue: the economy.

“People need to get back to work,” said Adams, 39, who hopes the vaccine will push governors who’ve shut down some businesses to ease restrictions. “They just need to open it up.”

The economy was named in some way by 68% of Americans, an uptick from 59% who named it a top problem the year before. And more specifically mentioned unemployment and jobs as a focus for 2021 than said so for 2020, 26% vs. 15%.

The poll also finds about 4 in 10 Americans mention health care separate from COVID-19. About a third mentioned foreign policy issues, and roughly as many named politics as a top problem to address this year.

A new priority is voting laws, with 14% of Republicans naming them as an issue after months of Trump falsely claiming that voter fraud led to Biden’s victory in the election. Only 1% of Republicans cited the issue as a priority for 2020.

There was no widespread fraud in the November election. This has been confirmed by election officials across the country, as well as by Trump’s former Attorney General William Barr. And nearly all of the legal challenges put forth by Trump and his allies were dismissed by judges.

Immigration, the issue that helped put Trump in the White House in 2016, dropped from 35% last year among all Americans to 18% now. It remains a higher priority for Republicans, with 24% mentioning immigration, though that is down from 51% one year ago.

Michael Henry, an actuary in Lawrenceville, Georgia, and chair of the local Young Democrats group, wants an overhaul of the immigration system to happen, especially after watching the grandfather of a friend die before he could get his citizenship, for which he’d already been waiting 30 years.

Even as it falls lower on Americans’ priority list, Biden is expected to send a massive immigration overhaul bill to Congress on the first day of his presidency. But, like many, Henry said he knows what has to happen first — the taming of the virus. “I swing between optimism and pessimism” on issues like immigration that require congressional action, Henry said. But he’s optimistic the Biden administration can contain the virus.

“There’s a lot that can be done by competent bureaucrats in the federal government,” Henry said.

A majority of Americans, 55%, said they expect the year ahead to be better than 2020 for them personally — more optimism than one and two years ago. A similar share, 54%, said they expect the year ahead to be better for the country as a whole. About three-quarters of Democrats but only about a third of Republicans said they expect 2021 to be better than 2020, either for them personally or for the country.

“Am I hopeful? No,” said Joseph Williams, a 49-year-old Catholic school teacher and Republican in Clayton, New Jersey. “All you have to do is turn on the news and they’re bickering all the time about who’s racist and who’s not racist. It’s disappointing.”

Still, Williams is trying to find hope where he can. “I have hope that we, as Americans, can get out of this,” he said.

Adam Hoffman, a 39-year-old university English instructor in Phoenix, is a Democrat, and he expresses similar sentiments. He is trying to hold onto hope for the new year. “I’m optimistic enough to wake up in the morning,” Hoffman said. “What other option do we have? We’ve got to keep going.”

Helping his optimism: Hoffman is scheduled to get his first coronavirus vaccination shot on Wednesday, the day of Biden’s inauguration.

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Riccardi reported from Denver.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,117 adults was conducted Dec. 3-7 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/.

By Tammy Webber and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

December 21, 2020

WASHINGTON (AP) — Maureen Brennan will spend Christmas with her daughter at their Nashua, New Hampshire, home after declining invitations from other relatives to celebrate with them. Michael Smith will mark the holidays alone in Elko, Nevada, unwilling to risk being infected with the coronavirus before he can be vaccinated.

Neither feels overly festive this holiday season, reflecting the mood of many Americans as a year marred by a national health crisis and teetering economy ends with the coronavirus pandemic still raging out of control. That’s according to a survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research that also finds some Americans are feeling a bit sadder, lonelier and less grateful than last year.

Smith, 69, said he usually spends Christmas alone, but the pandemic has been especially difficult because he likes to frequent local coffee shops and chat with friends and neighbors. The Caribbean cruise he looks forward to every year, which would have set sail on Jan. 3, was canceled.

So he’s mostly been staying home, fearful of what could happen if he contracted the virus, because of a monthlong hospitalization for pneumonia five years ago.

“I’m stressed that I can’t just get in my car and go someplace,” said Smith, who fills his time by puttering on his tractor and doing chores around his property.

Just 22% of Americans say they feel very or extremely festive this year, down from 49% one year ago. Those who do feel festive tend to be those least worried about the virus.

Holidays are always a stressful time, “but now people are feeling really, really worn down because this has been going on for so long,” said Dr. Karestan Koenen, a professor of psychiatric epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health. “Some people are suffering financially, and stimulus checks are running out.”

The pandemic — which has driven health care systems to the brink, thrown millions out of work and killed more than 310,000 in the U.S. — is casting a long shadow, with research showing that it has taken a toll on Americans’ mental health.

About 4 in 10 Americans are still intensely worried that they or a family member will be infected, with roughly three-quarters at least somewhat concerned. The coronavirus vaccine has capped the year with a glimmer of hope, but the poll found only about half of Americans are ready to get vaccinated immediately, with the rest unsure or uninterested. The poll was conducted shortly before the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was authorized for emergency use.

Overall, half of Americans say they’re at least somewhat lonely this holiday season, up from 41% last year. Fifty-two percent say they’re at least somewhat sad, compared to 44% last year.

Adults under 30 are more likely than those older to say they feel very sad or lonely — and more feel these emotions this year than they did last year.

Koenen said this is a time that young adults normally would be starting their independent lives. But now, graduation ceremonies may have been canceled, they may be forced to live with their families and it could be difficult to find a job because of the slowed economy.

For those who live alone, it’s “really hard right now (because) you’re literally alone all the time,” she said.

Brennan, who’s 76, said she’s lucky to have the companionship of her adult daughter, and hadn’t worried much about the virus until the number of infections and deaths began climbing in recent weeks. She and her daughter have been careful, wearing masks and patronizing the same stores to minimize potential exposure.

“But when figures started ramping up again … I could feel a sense of foreboding, especially watching what’s going on around (town) with the lack of stringency and the lack of mask-wearing,” said Brennan, a retired health care worker, who said she’s stocked up on baked goods and other favorites to ride out the holidays at home.

Both Brennan, whose husband died five years ago, and Smith said they have found satisfaction in helping others, rather than dwelling on what they cannot do.

“It is important to take care of those who absolutely need it and those who need only on a temporary basis,” said Brennan, who has donated to Nashua’s soup kitchen and children’s home.

Smith said he helped a couple of families, including a server at a coffee shop he frequents, who were struggling because of lost wages during the pandemic. Come January, he’ll donate to the local food bank.

Still, just 37% of Americans say they feel especially generous, compared with 52% last year.

Americans are also less likely to say they feel very grateful, though a 60% majority still say so, down from 73% a year ago.

Last year, similar majorities across ages and races said they were grateful. Now older Americans and Black Americans are especially likely to say they are. Koenen said it could be a reflection of their experiences.

“Maybe they’re grateful that they’re still here and also perhaps longer life gives one perspective,” Koenen said. “We do know gratitude increases resilience and mental health.”

Focusing on gratitude can help reduce anxiety, as can finding ways to help others, Koenen said. “So many felt helpless … but I think people feel better if they can do something,” she said.

Brennan said she’s chosen to focus on positive things, keeps up with what’s happening in her community and stays in contact with friends, even though they can’t visit.

“A lot of it is attitude,” she said. “You’ve got to be very realistic about this, but it’s not easy.”

And Smith is feeling more hopeful now that coronavirus vaccines have been approved.

“I look forward to (the time) when most of us will have had the vaccination,” he said. “Then we should be coming back to life.”

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Webber reported from Fenton, Mich.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,117 adults was conducted Dec. 3-7 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/