By Julie Pace and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

July 26, 2020

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the November election 100 days away, more Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction than at any previous point in Donald Trump’s presidency, putting the incumbent in a perilous position as his reelection bid against Democrat Joe Biden enters a pivotal stretch.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research also finds Trump’s approval for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic falling to a new low, with just 32% of Americans supportive of his approach. Even Trump’s standing on the economy, long the high water mark for the president, has fallen over the past few months after seeming ascendant earlier this year.

Those political headwinds have sparked a sudden summer shift in the White House and the Trump campaign. After spending months playing down the pandemic and largely ignoring the virus’ resurgence in several states, Trump warned this past week that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. After repeatedly minimizing the importance of wearing masks to limit the spread of the virus, Trump urged Americans to do exactly that. And after insisting he would press forward with a large campaign convention in August, the president announced that he was scrapping those plans.

Trump’s abrupt about-face underscores the reality of the situation he faces just over three months from Election Day. Even as he tries to refocus his contest with Biden on divisive cultural issues and an ominous “law and order” message, Trump’s reelection prospects are likely to be inextricably linked to his handling of the pandemic and whether voters believe the country will head back in the right direction under his leadership.

The AP-NORC poll makes clear the challenge ahead for Trump on that front: 8 in 10 Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. That’s more than at any point since Trump took office. The poll also finds just 38% of Americans say the national economy is good, down from 67% in January, before the pandemic upended most aspects of everyday life.

Biden’s campaign is eager to keep the final months of the campaign focused squarely on Trump, confident that the former vice president can emerge victorious if the contest is a referendum on whether the current commander in chief has succeeded during his four years in office.

“People are sick and tired of a government that is divided and broken and unable to get things done,” said Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager. “What people feel like they’re getting from Trump right now is a hodgepodge mess of self-interested political talk.”

The past few months have proved to be beneficial for Biden’s campaign. He managed to swiftly consolidate the Democratic Party in ways Hillary Clinton, the party’s 2016 nominee, struggled to do. Biden’s fundraising, a weakness for him in the primary, has surged, allowing his campaign to build out infrastructure and start ad spending in both traditional battleground states and more aspirational targets, including Texas and Georgia.

Biden has also benefited from Trump landing on the wrong side of the public in his initial reactions to the pandemic. For example, 3 in 4 Americans back requiring people to wear masks in public, which Trump initially dismissed.

Another pandemic test for the president lies ahead in August and September, as Trump and his administration aggressively try to sell a skeptical public on reopening schools. The poll finds that about third of Americans are opposed entirely to the idea, while close to half say major adjustments to instruction will be required.

The limitations the pandemic placed on the candidates’ ability to travel and hold large rallies have also played more to Biden’s strengths. While Trump relishes headlining rallies at packed arenas, Biden is less adept in those settings. He’s instead spent the past several months delivering speeches to small groups of invited guests and journalists within driving distance of his home in Delaware, and holding virtual events with supporters and donors.

Trump argues that shows Biden doesn’t have the stamina for a full-blown campaign; Biden’s advisers say voters want to see their leaders abide by the same public health guidelines they’re urging others to follow.

Democrats have been buoyed by public polls finding Biden ahead of Trump both nationally and in some battleground states by a comfortable margin. However, Biden advisers caution that they expect the race to tighten in the final stretch before Election Day as more Republicans who may be dissatisfied with Trump’s job performance gravitate back to their party’s leader.

Overall, 38% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance — well within the narrow range that Trump’s approval ratings have stayed throughout this presidency, but down slightly from earlier this year before the pandemic. Most Republicans — 81% — approve of Trump’s job performance, but just 68% of Republicans support his handling of the pandemic.

Publicly, Trump and his advisers say they have been here before: underestimated and counted out. They point to public polls throughout the summer of 2016 that showed Trump trailing Clinton, only to eclipse her on Election Day.

But privately, Trump’s political aides and allies have spent months trying to sound the alarm bells for the president, warning that he could lose the Midwestern battlegrounds he carried in 2016, as well as some reliably red states, if the trajectory — both of his campaign and the virus — continues.

One of the most concrete signs that Trump recognized he had gone off course came this month, when he demoted longtime campaign manager Brad Parscale, replacing him with experienced GOP operative Bill Stepien.

Stepien told reporters he expects the campaign to “be a knock-down, drag-out fight to the very end.”

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Associated Press writers Bill Barrow, Zeke Miller and Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.

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Follow Julie Pace at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC and Hannah Fingerhut at http://twitter.com/hrfingerhut

By Josh Boak and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

July 24, 2020

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly half of Americans whose families experienced a layoff during the coronavirus pandemic now believe those jobs are lost forever, a new poll shows, a sign of increasing pessimism that would translate into roughly 10 million workers needing to find a new employer, if not a new occupation.

It’s a sharp change after initial optimism the jobs would return, as temporary cutbacks give way to shuttered businesses, bankruptcies and lasting payroll cuts. In April, 78% of those in households with a job loss thought they’d be temporary. Now, 47% think that lost job is definitely or probably not coming back, according to the latest poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll is the latest sign the solid hiring of May and June, as some states lifted stay-at-home orders and the economy began to recover, may wane as the year goes on. Adding to the challenge: Many students will begin the school year online, making it harder for parents to take jobs outside their homes.

“Honestly, at this point, there’s not going to be a job to go back to,” said Tonica Daley, 35, who lives in Riverside, California, and has four children ranging from 3 to 18 years old. “The kids are going to do virtual school, and there is no day care.”

Daley was furloughed from her job as a manager at J.C. Penney, which has filed for bankruptcy protection. The extra $600 a week in jobless benefits Congress provided as part of the federal government’s coronavirus relief efforts let her family pay down its credit cards, she said, but the potential expiration or reduction of those benefits in August would force her to borrow money to get by.

The economy’s recovery has shown signs of stalling amid a resurgence of the coronavirus. The number of laid-off workers seeking jobless benefits rose last week for the first time since March, while the number of U.S. infections shot past 4 million — with many more cases undetected.

The poll shows that 72% of Americans would rather have restrictions in place in their communities to stop the spread of COVID-19 than remove them in an effort to help the economy. Just 27% want to prioritize the economy over efforts to stop the outbreak.

“The only real end to this pandemic problem is the successful application of vaccines,” said Fred Folkman, 82, a business professor from Long Island, in New York.

About 9 in 10 Democrats prioritize stopping the virus, while Republicans are more evenly divided — 46% focus on stopping the spread, while 53% say the economy is the bigger priority.

President Donald Trump and Congress have yet to agree to a new aid package. Democrats, who control the House, have championed an additional $3 trillion in help, including money for state and local governments. Republicans, who control the Senate, have proposed $1 trillion, decreasing the size of the expanded unemployment benefits.

Overall, about half of Americans say they or someone in their household has lost some kind of income over the course of the pandemic. That includes 27% who say someone has been laid off, 33% been scheduled for fewer hours, 24% taken unpaid time off and 29% had wages or salaries reduced.

Eighteen percent of those who lost a household job now say it has come back, while another 34% still expect it to return.

The poll continues to show the pandemic’s disparate impact. About 6 in 10 nonwhite Americans say they’ve lost a source of household income, compared with about half of white Americans. Forty-six percent of those with college degrees say they’ve lost some form of household income, compared with 56% of those without.

Trump’s approval rating on handling the economy stands at 48%, consistent with where it stood a month ago but down from January and March, when 56% said they approved. Still, the economy remains Trump’s strongest issue. Working to Trump’s advantage, 88% of Republicans — including 85% of those whose households have lost income during the pandemic — approve of his handling of the economy. Eighty-two percent of Democrats disapprove.

“A lot of people criticize our president, but he’s a cheerleader,” said Jim Russ, 74, a retired state worker from Austin, Texas. “As long we keep that, the American public will think positive and look positive.”

The poll finds that 38% of Americans think the national economy is good. That’s about the same as in June and up from 29% in May but far below the 67% who felt that way in January.

Sixty-four percent of Republicans think the economy is good, compared with 19% of Democrats. Likewise, 59% of Republicans expect the economy to improve in the next year, while Democrats are more likely to expect it to worsen than improve, 47% to 29%.

Sixty-five percent of Americans also call their personal financial situation good. That’s about the same as it’s been throughout the pandemic and before the crisis began. Still, Americans are slightly less likely than they were a month ago to expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next year. Thirty-three percent say that now, after 38% said so a month ago. Another 16% expect their finances to worsen, while 51% expect no changes.

So much of what happens in the economy will depend on the trajectory of the virus, said Danny Vaughn, 72, from Dade City, Florida.

“I don’t disagree with everything the president does, but his leadership on the coronavirus issue has been lacking,” Vaughn said. “And that’s the number one issue facing the American people right now.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,057 adults was conducted July 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/

By Michael R. Blood and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

July 23, 2020

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Three out of four Americans, including a majority of Republicans, favor requiring people to wear face coverings while outside their homes, a new poll finds, reflecting fresh alarm over spiking coronavirus cases and a growing embrace of government advice intended to safeguard public health.

The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research also finds that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the outbreak, an unwelcome sign for the White House in an election year shaped by the nation’s battle with the pandemic.

More than four months after government stay-at-home orders first swept across the U.S., the poll spotlights an America increasingly on edge about the virus. The federal government’s response is seen as falling short, and most Americans favor continued restrictions to stop the virus from spreading even if they might hamstring the economy.

Support for requiring masks is overwhelming among Democrats, at 89%, but 58% of Republicans are in favor as well. The poll was conducted before Trump, who for months was dismissive of masks, said this week that it’s patriotic to wear one.

“Not wearing a mask, to me, poses a greater risk of spreading the COVID,” said Darius Blevins, a 33-year-old Republican-leaning independent from Christiansburg, Virginia, who works in bank operations. Blevins said he wears a mask in public because “it’s much more effective than not wearing the mask.”

It’s an opinion echoed by data analyst James Shaw, an independent who tilts Democratic. “If you understand the facts, there is really no issue,” said Shaw, 56, of Noble, Illinois. “The data is crystal clear.”

For months health officials have said several simple steps could save lives — washing hands frequently, staying away from crowds, especially while indoors, and pulling on a mask when heading out to the supermarket, the office or a restaurant. And despite heated rhetoric about masks in some corners, 95% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans said they’re wearing face coverings when leaving the house. Overall, 86% of Americans say they’re doing so, compared with 73% in May.

As the tally of coronavirus infections continues to climb, state and local governments have tried to find a balance between restrictions intended to limit the virus’ spread, such as closing bars and indoor dining at restaurants, and getting workers back on the job after many businesses were idled and millions of people were left jobless by the initial stay-at-home orders.

The U.S. has more than 3.9 million known cases of the coronavirus, with many more undetected, and more than 140,000 people have died of it this year. The U.S. leads the world in confirmed cases and deaths and ranks near the top on a per-capita basis. California, which earned plaudits from health officials for aggressive early action that included the first statewide stay-at-home order, is among states seeing a surge. On Wednesday, California passed New York for the most confirmed cases with 409,000.

About half of Americans now say they’re extremely or very worried about themselves or someone in their families being infected with the virus — about the same as in March, but a steep increase from June, when just 32% said they were that concerned. Republicans were less likely to be anxious about the illness, but concern rose among members of both parties.

There were other signs of continued unease. Support for limiting the size of gatherings ticked back up to 66%, after sliding for several months to a low of 59% in June. Eighty-five percent of Americans say they’re avoiding large groups.

About half say they favor requiring people to stay in their homes except for essential trips. That number remained about steady since June. About half also favor requiring bars and restaurants to close.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans said restrictions to slow the spread of the virus should override concerns about damaging the economy, but California retiree Kimberly Greenan said she favors relaxing rules and allowing people to get back to work. Greenan says she wears a mask on trips to the grocery store and at church, but not if she’s walking in a park, away from other people.

“If people are vigilant, if they do what’s right, this economy could come back,” said Greenan, 67, a Republican and former accountant and teacher from Santee, in the San Diego suburbs.

While tough steps were needed initially, “for the most part people are ready to get on with their lives,” she said. “I don’t think tying everyone down is the right move.”

The poll finds that only 24% of Americans approve of the federal government’s response to the outbreak, with disapproval hitting 55%, ticking up 7 percentage points from May. The remainder did not have an opinion either way.

Trump’s recent endorsement of masks came after he said in April that “I just don’t want to wear one.” The Republican president was not seen wearing a mask in public until July 11, months after the coronavirus took hold in the U.S. Trump has recently suggested the virus is under control, but he changed course Tuesday, saying it will “get worse before it gets better.”

Democratic California Sen. Dianne Feinstein on Wednesday again called for a national mask requirement.

“We need a mandate at the federal level that will uniformly require masks across the country,” she said in a statement. “This isn’t a political issue.”

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Swanson reported from Washington.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,057 adults was conducted July 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/

By Collin Binkley and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

July 22, 2020

BOSTON (AP) — Virtual instruction. Mandated masks. Physical distancing. The start of school will look very different this year because of the coronavirus — and that’s OK with the vast majority of Americans.

Only about 1 in 10 Americans think daycare centers, preschools or K-12 schools should open this fall without restrictions, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs. Most think mask requirements and other safety measures are necessary to restart in-person instruction, and roughly 3 in 10 say that teaching kids in classrooms shouldn’t happen at all.

The findings are a sharp contrast to the picture that President Donald Trump paints as he pressures schools to reopen. Trump said Wednesday that he would be “comfortable” with his son Barron and grandchildren attending school in person this fall.

“I would like to see the schools open,” he told reporters.

Few schools, however, plan to return to business as usual. Many of the nation’s largest school districts have announced that they’ll be entirely virtual in the fall or use a hybrid model that has children in classrooms only a couple of days a week.

The poll finds only 8% of Americans say K-12 schools should open for normal in-person instruction. Just 14% think they can reopen with minor adjustments, while 46% think major adjustments are needed. Another 31% think instruction should not be in person this fall. It’s little different among the parents of school-age children.

The poll also shows Americans feel the same about colleges and universities reopening this fall.

Americans show little confidence in Trump’s handling of education issues. Only 36% say they approve of Trump’s performance, while 63% disapprove. But a stark political divide on opening schools suggests many Republicans are taking cues from the president.

About 9 in 10 Democrats say requiring students and staff to wear masks is essential to reopening, while only about half of Republicans say the same. Democrats are roughly twice as likely as Republicans to say schools should use a mix of in-person and virtual instruction to reduce the number of students in buildings, 77% to 39%.

Patty Kasbek, of Bartlesville, Oklahoma, said she desperately wants her two children, ages 5 and 10, to return to school. After months at home, the family is stressed and anxious. But with the virus surging, she doesn’t see a safe way to reopen.

“School shouldn’t even be considered right now,” said Kasbek, 40. “We need to get this under control before we play with the virus. It’s just too dangerous to put our kids out there like guinea pigs.”

Her local school district is planning to reopen with new safety measures, she said, but she’s opting to enroll her children in a virtual school. She isn’t as worried about her own health but fears that reopening schools could spread the virus to others.

“I just see it going very badly, and I’m very, very worried for the teachers,” said Kasbek, who considers herself a Democrat.

The poll finds a majority of Americans, 56%, say they are very or extremely concerned that reopening schools will lead to additional infections in their communities; another 24% are somewhat concerned.

Some, however, see little risk. James Rivers, of Ramsey, Minnesota, said schools should reopen without protective measures against the virus. Rivers, a Republican, says Trump is doing a “fine job” and will have his vote in November.

“I think it should be just business as usual,” said Rivers, 54. “Yes, there is a COVID virus, but is it any more deadly than the common flu? I don’t think so.”

Rivers, who does not have school-age children, said parents who fear the virus can home school. “As for everybody else who isn’t afraid of a virus that has a less than 2% chance of being fatal, send your kid back to school. Let’s get it done,” he said.

Majorities say it is essential that buildings be disinfected daily, temperature checks and face masks be mandatory and desks be spread apart if schools are to reopen.

And 6 in 10 think a mix of in-person and virtual instruction is necessary, to limit the number of students inside at one time. Some of the nation’s largest districts, including New York City’s schools, plan to use that model. But Education Secretary Betsy DeVos says that fails students and taxpayers, arguing that students should be in the classroom every day.

In his campaign to reopen schools, Trump argues that Democrats oppose it for political reasons. He has threatened to cut federal funding for schools that fail to reopen fully. The White House has said he wants to work with Congress to tie future relief funding to reopening. He argues that other countries have reopened schools safely, although some he cites have used the hybrid model that DeVos decried.

The Trump administration also has argued that it’s not just about academics. Students need access to meal programs and mental health services, it says.

But Trump’s demands put him at odds with his own health officials. He rebuked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for releasing school guidelines that he said were too tough.

The poll finds about half of parents saying they are at least somewhat concerned about their child losing services like school lunches or counseling because of the pandemic.

More say they are worried about their child falling behind academically: 55% are very concerned, with another 21% somewhat concerned.

A majority of parents, 65%, are at least somewhat concerned about their own ability to juggle responsibilities.

Jimmy La Londe, 70, of Hiawassee, Georgia, thinks schools should reopen with safety measures that local officials think are necessary. Still, La Londe, who considers himself a Republican, said keeping schools closed will only hurt students and anger taxpayers.

“They have to keep the momentum, they have to keep people used to going to school,” he said. “I don’t think you can stop school forever.”

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Fingerhut reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Zeke Miller in Washington contributed to this report.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,057 adults was conducted July 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org/