By Nomaan Merchant and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press
March 23, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — As Russia escalates its war in Ukraine and stories of civilian casualties and destruction in cities reach the United States, support has risen for a major American role — and so has fear of the threat Russia poses to the U.S.

The new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research also finds a majority of Americans say they’re willing to accept damage to the economy if it helps to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Forty percent now say the U.S. should have a “major role,” up from 26% in an AP-NORC poll conducted just before the invasion began.

Another 46% say the U.S. should have a “minor role.” The percentage who think the U.S. shouldn’t be involved at all ticked down from 20% to 13%.

The poll suggests many Americans want President Joe Biden to do more to counter Russia without suggesting he should reverse his pledge not to send U.S. troops to Ukraine.

Additional U.S. forces have deployed to neighboring countries that are part of NATO. The U.S. and West, meanwhile, have imposed sanctions that have crushed Russia’s economy. They are providing anti-tank and anti-missile weapons to Ukraine, which has mounted a robust resistance, killed thousands of Russian troops, and stopped Russia from taking Kyiv or other major cities so far. But the White House has also held back some weapons and intelligence as it seeks to avoid a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia, which have the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.

A majority of Americans — 56% — think Biden hasn’t been tough enough on Russia, according to the poll. Another 36% said his approach has been “about right.”

Speaking after the release of the earlier AP-NORC poll, White House press secretary Jen Psaki noted that Americans may have different meanings of what is a “major role” or “minor role” in the conflict. “We make national security decisions based on what’s best for our country’s national security, not on the latest polling,” Psaki said.

Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine and Putin’s raising the alert level on his country’s nuclear weapons has sparked fears around the world. The poll shows the vast majority of Americans are at least somewhat concerned that the U.S. will be drawn into a war with Russia, including nearly half who are very or extremely concerned. Several respondents interviewed after the poll raised the possibility of a third world war.

There’s also increasing worry about Russia’s influence in the world — with 64% saying they were very or extremely concerned, up from 53% a month ago — and strong support for the U.S. sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukrainian refugees. Two-thirds said they favor accepting people from Ukraine into the U.S., compared to only about 1 in 10 opposed.

Putin’s decision to invade reminded Leo Martin, an 85-year-old from Council Bluffs, Iowa, of Nazi Germany entering Poland in 1939, which started World War II in Europe.

“I’m not sure if Putin is bluffing but it seems like we’re going to have to push back,” he said. “I didn’t think he was quite as ruthless as he is. That kind of surprised me.”

Americans ages 60 and older were most likely to say the U.S. should play a major role, at 58% compared with 39% of those ages 45 to 59 and 29% of those under age 45. The percentages in all three age groups rose this month from February.

The poll also found a small majority of Americans — 55% — saying the bigger priority for the U.S. in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible, even if it damages the U.S. economy.” Still, a sizeable minority — 42% — said the bigger priority is “limiting damage to the U.S. economy, even if it means sanctions on Russia are less effective.”

About 7 in 10 Americans approve of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia in general and the ban on Russian oil in particular.

“When you look at what the people of Ukraine are going through and all the upheaval over there, it’s like, ‘Well, we can pay a little more for gas,’” said Anne-Marie Klein, 38, from Longview, Washington.

Klein said she considered Putin a “madman” and said the U.S. had to strike the balance between pushing back against the Russian president without instigating the kind of global conflict that her two sons, ages 8 and 10, may one day have to fight. She said she believed the U.S. should play a “minor role.”

“‘Minor role’ to me means our troops aren’t fighting,” she said. “It can stop there and not become nuclear.”

Drake Brandon, a 23-year-old from Sacramento, California, said he was trying to find work and said many people were worried about rising gas prices and economic issues. But while Brandon also said he wanted the U.S. to have a “minor role” focusing on sanctions, he rated his level of concern about the conflict, on a 1 to 10 scale, as an 8 or 9.

“I think about it every day,” he said. “Part of me thinks Putin has nothing to really lose at this point.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,082 adults was conducted March 17-21 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

By Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press

March 24, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — As President Joe Biden meets with key allies in Brussels to coordinate a stronger response to Russia’s monthlong assault on Ukraine, a new poll shows Americans have yet to rally around his leadership.

Concern about Russia has swelled and support for a major U.S. role in the conflict strengthened in the last month, but Biden’s negative approval rating has not budged, according to the poll Thursday from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Few are very confident that he can handle a crisis, and a majority thinks he lacks toughness in dealing with Russia.

Only 43% of Americans approve of Biden and a similar percentage approve of his handling of the relationship with Russia. Both measures are little different from an AP-NORC poll conducted days before the Feb. 24 invasion.

The U.S., along with NATO allies, have tried to isolate Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin with sanctions, including freezing foreign assets of Russia’s central bank and cutting off its supply to essential war materiel. But Russia has continued for a month to batter cities in Ukraine with air strikes and artillery, despite a stalled ground invasion.

Over the next three days, the Biden administration aims to work with key European allies on a united strategy to aid Ukraine militarily, increase sanctions on Russia and wrestle with the worsening humanitarian crisis, according to Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.

Biden does so on shaky ground with the American public. Only about a quarter are very confident that the president has the ability to handle a crisis, promote U.S. standing in the world or effectively manage the U.S. military, though most have at least some confidence.

Fifty-six percent of Americans think Biden has not been tough enough on Russia, while 36% say his approach has been “about right.”

Even among members of his own party, Biden faces pressure to do more. The poll shows Democrats are closely divided over the president’s response, with 43% saying he hasn’t been tough enough. Somewhat more, 53%, say it’s been “about right.”

“I understand he’s between a rock and a hard place,” said Rachel Collins, a 41-year-old Democrat from Chicago. “It just feels like Putin’s not going to stop at Ukraine.”

Collins, an elementary school teacher, said she feels like she’s watching history unfolding yet again.

“How many years are we gonna watch this happen and then have to step in anyway?” she added. “It just feels inevitable and, in the meantime, we’re just watching all these people suffer.”

While support for a major U.S. role has grown since last month, from 26% to 40%, Biden faces a tightrope walk to avoid war and to curb the impact on the American people. The poll shows close to half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being drawn into war with Russia.

Biden has repeatedly said that he will not send American troops to Ukraine, though some have been deployed to neighboring NATO countries.

“I think that he’s doing the right thing and being cautious, but it’s really hard when you’re watching and reading about these stories day to day,” Collins said. “More aggressive at where we are means putting troops on the ground, and I don’t necessarily know if that’s the answer either.”

“Then, you know, there’ll be people saying ‘why are we putting troops in there,’” she added.

While Republicans are less likely than Democrats to support the U.S. having a major role in Russia’s war, most also say they think Biden’s response has not been tough enough.

“He’s scared,” said David Stoddard, a retired border patrol agent in Sierra Vista, Arizona. “He’s scared of Putin. He’s scared of (China’s) Xi (Jinping). He’s scared of everything.”

Stoddard, 76, would prefer somebody like former President Donald Trump over Biden to tell Putin “that Putin may have a red button but the United States’ red button is bigger,” he said.

Stoddard thinks there’s more Biden could be doing to strengthen sanctions and support Ukraine militarily, including transferring Polish MiG fighter jets to Ukraine from a NATO air base in Germany, which the Pentagon declined to do earlier in March. The administration has said it is determined to avoid further action that could be seen as escalatory by Putin.

Majorities of Republicans and Democrats alike said they approve of economic sanctions imposed on Russia in general and on the ban on Russian oil in particular, according to the poll. But while 77% of Democrats approve of how Biden is handling the relationship with Russia, just 12% of Republicans do.

While some Democrats acknowledged thinking that Biden could be doing more, many are confident in him to do what’s best for the country.

“I’m sure there’s more that he could do,” said Chris Hollander, a research assistant in Denver. “But as far as being tough, he’s not a pushover.”

Listening to the intelligence community and getting NATO countries to work together reflect Biden’s “behind the scenes” leadership, Hollander, 33, said. “I think he’s threading a needle.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,082 adults was conducted March 17-21 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

By Josh Boak and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

March 24, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of Americans say they don’t blame President Joe Biden for high gasoline prices, but they’re giving his economic leadership low marks amid fears of inflation and deep pessimism about economic conditions.

About 7 in 10 Americans say the nation’s economy is in bad shape, and close to two-thirds disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. In addition, Americans are more likely to say his policies have hurt the economy than helped it.

Yet less than half say the jump in gas prices is Biden’s fault, a reflection of how the country is processing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting increase in oil costs.

The polls hints at a paradox in which the public views Biden as being in power without necessarily being in control. His hopes for a lasting economic renaissance have faded as Americans cope with higher food and energy costs. And the promise of a country no longer under the pandemic’s sway has been supplanted by the uncertainty of war in Europe.

“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” said Adam Newago, 53, a truck driver from Eau Claire, Wisconsin. He sees inflation as spiraling outward with higher fuel prices increasing the costs of shipping and ultimately raising prices across the broader economy.

Newago said he reluctantly voted for President Donald Trump in 2020, while his wife cast her ballot for Biden. He feels that inflation at a 40-year high and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan have led to a “mess.”

Overall, 65% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the nation’s economy, including 96% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats. The overall share saying they disapprove is up from 57% in December of 2021 and from 47% last July.

Gas prices stand above other types of inflation when it comes to the worries ordinary Americans have about price increases impacting their bottom lines. A hefty 68% said they’re very concerned about gas prices, while 59% expressed the same degree of worry about rising grocery prices.

Gas prices were high before Putin began amassing forces at the Ukrainian border, but they’ve risen since the start of the war without producing a slew of additional oil to come onto the market.

Tammy Baca, 52, who works in education in Fort Worth, Texas, said that prices at the pump are a function of the geopolitics.

“You’re going to have to suffer, you know?” said Baca, a Democrat. “It’s almost like we’re pitching in for wartime effort, without even being at war.”

Many Americans agree, with 55% saying it’s a bigger priority for the U.S. to effectively sanction Russia than to limit damage to the U.S. economy.

Shelter is the dominant expenditure in the government’s measure of inflation, but less than half of Americans — 40% — say they’re very concerned about higher than usual housing costs impacting their household finances. Another 24% are somewhat concerned.

Fifty-three percent of Americans also say they’re very concerned about higher prices for other goods and services.

Overall, Americans are more likely to say that higher than usual gas prices are more because of factors outside of Biden’s control than because of Biden’s policies, 55% to 44%.

Still, more think Biden’s policies are hurting the economy than helping it, 48% to 24%. Another 28% say they haven’t made much difference. The rejection comes after Biden steered a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package and $1 trillion infrastructure package through Congress, though his agenda on economic equity and clean energy stalled in Congress last December.

For Jennifer Smith, the relief package was a financial lifeline. The 50-year-old lives off disability and lives with her daughter in Zanesville, Ohio. Smith voted for Trump in 2020, but she disliked the Jan. 6, 2020, assault on the U.S. Capitol. She not only received a direct payment from the government but $250 monthly in the expanded child tax credit — both of which have disappeared while the inflation has stayed.

“I know this sounds crazy, but I’m thrilled to be able to pay bills,” Smith said. “With the way it is right now, I can’t without borrowing, robbing Peter to pay Paul.”

Eighty-eight percent of Democrats say high gas prices are outside Biden’s control, while 79% of Republicans specifically blame his policies, which many said in follow-up interviews limited U.S. energy production. Most Republicans say Biden’s policies are hurting the economy, but among Democrats, 45% say they’re helping and 39% say they’re not making much difference.

The poll suggests support among Democrats for Biden’s economic leadership is decidedly lukewarm, especially among those under 45. That’s a meaningful difference from the loyalty that the GOP expressed for Trump — who in March 2018 enjoyed an 84% approval on the economy from his fellow Republicans.

In yet another sign of how partisanship is shaping views of the economy and inflation, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they’re very concerned about the impact on their households from higher prices for gas, groceries, housing, and other goods and services.

Overall, 69% of Americans say that the nation’s economy is in poor shape, compared with 31% who say it’s good. The share saying the economy is poor has ticked up slightly from 64% in December. Still, 63% call their personal financial situation good, a number that has stayed remarkably steady since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

As for Biden, his supporters say he’s been held back by Congress and the challenges created by the disruptions and crises that are part of the U.S. presidency.

Mary Payne, 75, a nurse in California, said she wouldn’t say Biden’s performance has been “excellent,” though it’s been “good” and “probably fair.” She said she opposed Trump in 2020 and views the Republicans right now as obstructive.

“I don’t know how many roadblocks are put up for him doing what he wants to do,” Payne said. “I think the heart is there. I think that he cares.”

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Associated Press polling reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,082 adults was conducted March 17-21 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

By Ben Fox and Hannah Fingerhut | The Associated Press
March 27, 2022

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia’s war on Ukraine has most Americans at least somewhat worried that the U.S. will be drawn directly into the conflict and could be targeted with nuclear weapons, with a new poll reflecting a level of anxiety that has echoes of the Cold War era.

Close to half of Americans say they are very concerned that Russia would directly target the U.S. with nuclear weapons, and an additional 3 in 10 are somewhat concerned about that, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his country’s nuclear forces on high alert shortly after the Feb. 24 invasion.

Roughly 9 in 10 Americans are at least somewhat concerned that Putin might use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, including about 6 in 10 who are very concerned.

“He is out of control, and I don’t think he really has concern for much of anything but what he wants,” said Robin Thompson, a retired researcher from Amherst, Massachusetts. “And he has nuclear weapons.”

Seventy-one percent of Americans say the invasion has increased the possibility of nuclear weapons being used anywhere in the world.

The poll was conducted before North Korea test-fired its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile on Friday but also shows 51% of Americans saying they are very concerned about the threat to the U.S. posed by North Korea’s nuclear program. An additional 29% expressed moderate concern.

Fear of nuclear war has been a fact of life for decades. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published its “Doomsday Clock” since 1947, showing a theoretical countdown to nuclear annihilation. The latest update, in January, put the time at 100 seconds to midnight — unchanged since 2020, but still closer than ever to Armageddon.

It’s difficult to measure the public’s degree of fear over time because polls use different methodologies or pose questions in different ways. Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear historian at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, said people often won’t bring it up on their own but list it among concerns if given the choice.

The fear, naturally enough, also tends to rise and fall depending on what is happening around the world. “We have these moments that are sort of high crisis periods,” Wellerstein said. “And then they come and go, and people forget that we had them.”

One particularly high point, he said, was in 1983, a time of tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union and the year that a highly watched movie about nuclear war, “The Day After,” first aired on TV in the United States.

In the recent AP-NORC poll, close to half of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned that the U.S. might be drawn into a war with Russia. Roughly 4 in 10 Americans said they are “somewhat” concerned.

The findings reflect not just anxiety about what seems like a proxy war with Russia, even if the U.S. isn’t directly involved in the conflict, but also the unprecedented saturation coverage of the war through traditional news outlets and social media.

“We are seeing almost moment by moment what’s happening to these poor people,” said Linda Woodward, a retired phone company technician from Hot Springs Village, Arkansas.

The concern about nuclear war cuts across party lines and even resonates with some young adults who were born after the Cold War.

Caleb Pack, a 21-year-old Republican from Ardmore, Oklahoma, was among those who said that they were “somewhat concerned” that the U.S. would be drawn into the war and that Russia would target the United States with nuclear weapons.

“If Russia’s end goal is to reclaim Soviet Union territory, that means they’re going to push into NATO countries, which obviously I think could escalate very quickly,” said Pack, who works in information systems.

Certainly, Russia hasn’t taken steps to alleviate concerns. Putin issued what appeared to be an ominous threat when he reminded the world in a speech the day he launched the invasion that his country is “one of the most powerful nuclear states.”

In that context, concern is justified, said Tara Drozdenko, director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Whenever you have nuclear-armed nations getting closer to conflict, there’s always a risk of nuclear escalation,” she said.

So far, NATO and the Biden administration have been careful not to escalate the situation, Drozdenko said. But she believes the public should use this time to push for changes to limit the risk. That would include adopting a formal policy that the U.S. would not strike first with nuclear weapons, to reduce the risk of an accidental strike by an adversary, and taking the final authority for a launch out of the hands of the president alone.

Historian Wellerstein also sees a possible upside to the heightened state of concern. He cited research showing that a crisis can have the long-term effect of getting people more engaged with an issue.

“This thing with Ukraine will inevitably end, hopefully sooner rather than later,” he said. “This could be an opportunity for getting a lot more people, especially younger people, invested in this as a political issue.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,082 adults was conducted March 17-21 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

By Russ Bynum and Emily Swanson | The Associated Press

March 29, 2022

Many Americans have taken significant steps back from once-routine coronavirus precautions, with less than half now saying they regularly wear face masks, avoid crowds and skip nonessential travel.

Americans are letting down their guard even as experts warn a new wave of COVID-19 cases is coming. A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows fewer people taking protective measures than at any point in AP-NORC polls conducted since early 2021.

The poll found 44% say they often or always wear a face mask around people outside of their homes, down from 65% in January when infections of the highly contagious omicron variant were soaring. Just 40% say they’re largely avoiding nonessential travel, compared with 60% in January. And 47% say they regularly stay away from large groups, down from 65% in January.

Most Americans say they at least sometimes still follow those safeguards. But they’re increasingly returning to pre-pandemic norms as coronavirus infections have fallen to their lowest level since July.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention no longer recommends masking indoors for most Americans, while cities are lifting mask and vaccine requirements to enter restaurants, bars and concert venues. And more U.S. workers are returning to offices after two years of doing their jobs at home.

Judy Morgan, a retired teacher from Poulsbo, Washington, said she and her husband, a Navy veteran, have gradually become more relaxed about wearing masks and other precautions since getting their vaccine booster shots in late October. Roughly six weeks ago, she went back to shopping without a mask when the Navy base where she buys groceries stopped requiring face coverings.

“I figured when the military starts easing up, because they’re pretty strict, that’s a very good sign,” said Morgan, 80.

Morgan and her husband plan to put their masks back on at the airport later this week when they fly to Florida to celebrate her birthday. She said they were extra cautious earlier in the pandemic because her husband has a heart condition that makes him more susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19 — and she’s ready to go back to that behavior if another severe wave of infections hits.

“My hope is that it’s tapering off and every variation will be somewhat less viral or significant,” Morgan said. “But my fear is something new will happen.”

Experts say the coronavirus isn’t going away, and most Americans recognize the virus will stick around. In January, an AP-NORC poll showed just 15% of Americans said the pandemic will be over when COVID-19 is mostly eliminated. Most said they expect the pandemic to end when it’s largely a mild virus.

But that might not be the case just yet. Experts still say new variants could soon start another wave of rising infections in the U.S. Scientists are closely watching an extra-contagious spinoff of omicron that already has case numbers climbing in parts of Europe and Asia, as well as a delta-omicron hybrid, though so far infections of that variant appear to be rare.

Sonia Montoya, of Albuquerque, New Mexico, isn’t taking any chances. The 65-year-old bookkeeper still works remotely from her office colleagues, orders any restaurant meals to go and makes sure to wear a mask when shopping or attending church. Six of Montoya’s relatives and friends died from the virus, and she said she’s still very worried about getting sick even though she’s vaccinated.

“It came back and hit us again once before, and I have a feeling if we aren’t cautious we are going to do it again,” Montoya said. “Yes, it’s slowing down, but there’s a lot of stupid people out there, especially the younger ones that don’t think it’s serious.”

Since vaccines became widely available to the American public, AP-NORC polls have consistently shown that vaccinated people are more worried about infections and more likely to take preventive steps than the unvaccinated. The vaccinated are still more likely than the unvaccinated to say they’re always or often avoiding nonessential travel (44% to 29%), staying away from large groups (51% to 32%) and wearing face masks around other people (49% to 26%).

But the new poll shows that over the past two months the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike have become less likely to regularly take those precautions. Likewise, both Democrats and Republicans are less likely than they were in January to say they frequently take protective measures.

Jason Newman, of Greenville, Kentucky, said he never wears a mask unless he’s required to, has no concerns about dining out and never got vaccinated. He said he’s tested positive for COVID-19 twice but suffered no symptoms either time.

The 43-year-old postal worker said in recent months he’s noticed more people who seem to be treating the virus the way he does.

“It’s always going be here no matter what, because they won’t be able to eradicate it,” Newman said. “I think, by and large, they’re all over it.”

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,082 adults was conducted March 17-21 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.