September 26, 2024
The public views gender as a larger threat to Kamala Harris’ campaign than they did in 2016 during Hillary Clinton’s campaign. About 4 in 10 adults think the fact that Harris is a woman will hurt her, while a third think it will help her and a quarter don’t believe it will make a difference. In August 2016, more said Clinton’s gender would be an asset than a threat, with 37% saying that it would help compared with 29% who said it would hurt. A third believed it would not make a difference.
Perspectives have also shifted on whether Donald Trump’s gender will help or hinder his campaign. Compared to 2016, more people now believe that his gender will help him (41% vs. 28%). Similar to 2016, only about 1 in 10 believe his gender will hurt him.
In the latest poll, men and women have nearly identical perceptions of how gender will impact each of the candidates’ chances of being elected in November.
Democratic men and women are more likely than their respective Republican counterparts to believe Harris’ being a woman will be a risk and Trump’s gender will be an asset. Republican men and women tend to think that Harris’ gender will help her campaign and Trump’s will neither help nor hurt him.
Democrats have grown more pessimistic about the role that gender could play for Harris, compared with Clinton. Eight years ago, 31% of Democratic men thought Clinton’s gender would hurt her, while now 53% of Democratic men expect Harris’ gender will hurt her chances. Democratic women have also grown more likely to say being a woman hurts Harris’ electoral chances. Forty-three percent of Democratic women said it would hurt Clinton compared with 52% who think it will hurt Harris.
Two-thirds of the public think there is at least some discrimination against women in the United States today, compared with 75% who said the same in 2016.
These days, about three-quarters think both Black women and Black men face discrimination today. Just a third think there is discrimination against men in general.
Women are more likely than men to assert there is at least some discrimination against women in the country today (73% vs. 58%). A similar split occurred in 2016, when 82% of women asserted this was the case compared with 67% of men.
The nationwide poll was conducted September 12-16, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 2,028 adults. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.
- Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (September 2024). “More say Kamala Harris’ gender will hurt her chances of being elected compared with Hillary Clinton in 2016”
