August 8, 2024
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, most adults think that U.S. democracy is one of the issues at stake. About three-quarters believe the election will be extremely or very important for the future of democracy in the United States, including a majority of both parties. However, Democrats are more likely to say the election is extremely important at 55%, compared with 36% of Republicans and 39% of independents.
When it comes to the current strength of U.S. democracy, 6 in 10 adults think democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the presidential election. Two in 10 believe that democracy is strong enough to withstand no matter who wins the election, while another 2 in 10 believe democracy is already so seriously broken that it doesn’t matter who wins.
Independents are most likely to believe that democracy is already seriously broken regardless of the election outcome. This view is held by 37% of independents, compared with only 17% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats. Democrats and Republicans are more likely to think that U.S democracy is at risk depending on the election outcome.
Men are more likely than women to believe that U.S. democracy is strong enough to withstand the election no matter who wins in November (28% vs. 15%).
Most Republicans and Democrats view the election as carrying high stakes for several issues. At least 7 in 10 adults feel the outcome will be important in determining the future of democracy, the economy, and immigration. However, there are differences among Democrats and Republicans about the level of importance of these issues, with Democrats especially concerned about the election results’ impact on democracy and Republicans about the impact for immigration and the economy.
Concerns about how the next president might impact democracy are widespread among people who oppose Donald Trump and those who oppose Kamala Harris. Among those who say that Trump would not make a good president, 79% believe that the outcome of the election could be important for the future of U.S. democracy, including 50% who say it is extremely important. Among those who say that Harris would not make a good president, 65% think what happens in November could be important for democracy’s future, including 37% who say it is extremely important.
There are large partisan differences regarding climate change. Overall 49% of adults believe the election outcome could have important consequences for climate change, including 76% of Democrats and 44% of independents. But only 21% of Republicans think the result of the election could be important for climate change.
Across issues, adults under 45 are less likely than older adults to think the upcoming election is important, though a majority of adults under age 45 do think the outcome will have an impact. Regarding the future of democracy, 49% of adults 45 and older believe the election is extremely important, compared to 40% of younger adults. There are no differences by age when it comes to the importance of the election for climate change.
The nationwide poll was conducted July 25-29, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,143 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
- Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (August 2024). “Most feel that democracy is at stake in the upcoming presidential election” https://apnorc.org/projects/most-feel-that-democracy-is-at-stake-in-the-upcoming-presidential-election/
