July 17, 2024
As President Biden continues to face the fallout from his debate performance, 7 in 10 adults, including 65% of Democrats, say he should withdraw and allow his party to select a different nominee. There are growing misgivings about Biden’s mental capability to be an effective president, and few adults think he can win in November.
The survey – which was conducted July 11-15, mostly completed before the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump – finds that more people view Biden as honest than Trump. But Trump is more likely to be seen as capable of winning in November and better able to handle a crisis.
Overall, 57% of adults say Trump should withdraw from the race and allow his party to name a replacement. But Trump is maintaining support from his party, with 73% of Republicans saying he should stay in the race.
Biden is facing more resistance from his party, with only 35% of Democrats saying he should stay in the race.
Black Democrats are among Biden’s strongest supporters. Half of Black Democrats say he should continue running, while only a third of white and Hispanic Democrats say the same.
Younger Democrats are more likely to want Biden to withdraw from the race. Three-quarters of Democrats under the age of 45 want Biden to drop out, compared to 57% of those over the age of 45.
Thirty-seven percent of Democrats are satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee. Before last month’s debate, 42% were satisfied. But the number of Democrats who are dissatisfied has grown slightly from 38% to 48%.
In contrast, about 6 in 10 Republicans continue to be satisfied, with roughly a quarter dissatisfied with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket in November.
Younger Democrats are especially likely to say they’re very dissatisfied with Biden as the nominee: Around 4 in 10 are very dissatisfied that Biden is their party’s likely nominee, compared to 16% of Democrats over the age of 45.
White and Hispanic Democrats are more likely than Black Democrats to express dissatisfaction with another four years with Biden.
While few adults have confidence in either Biden’s or Trump’s mental capability to be president, they’re more confident in Trump than Biden.
Nearly half of Democrats are not very or not at all confident that Biden has the mental capability to serve as president, up from a third in February. And only 27% of Democrats are extremely or very confident in his ability to be an effective president, down from 40% in February.
Republicans have more confidence in Trump. Sixty percent of Republicans are extremely or very confident that Trump has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, not substantially different from February.
Forty percent of the public say honest is better descriptor of Biden than Trump.
But the public is more likely to think Trump can win the 2024 election than Biden. Trump is also more likely to be viewed as capable of handling a crisis.
About a third of adults say Biden has the better vision for the country, including about 7 in 10 Democrats. Another third says Trump has the better vision, along with about 7 in 10 Republicans.
Biden and Trump’s favorability ratings have remained steady. Six in 10 adults have an unfavorable view of Trump, and about the same number have an unfavorable view of Biden.
Forty-three percent of adults have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris, including 74% of Democrats. Most of the public does not know enough about Sen. J.D. Vance to have an opinion. Trump named Vance as his running mate after the survey was completed.
Thirty percent of the public think Harris would make a good president, including 58% of Democrats and 20% of independents. Twenty-two percent of Democrats do not think Harris would make a good president and 20% do not know enough to say, compared to 39% of independents who do not think she would make a good president, and 40% who do not know enough to have an opinion. Among Republicans, 87% say Harris would not make a good president.
Most of the public have not developed opinions about either California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom have been mentioned as possible replacements for Biden.
The nationwide poll was conducted July 11-15, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,253 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.
- Suggested Citation: AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (July 2024). “Most say Biden should withdraw from the Presidential race” https://apnorc.org/projects/most-say-biden-should-withdraw-from-the-presidential-race/
