July 31, 2024
About 80% of Democrats say Vice President Kamala Harris would make a good president and 79% would be satisfied with her at the top of the ticket.
The public overall is somewhat skeptical about her chances to beat Donald Trump, though. Fifty-six percent of adults predict Trump will win in November.
While Democrats and Republicans each overwhelmingly have faith in their candidate to win the general election, a larger share of Republicans say Trump will win than Democrats who think Harris will win.
Forty-four percent of adults, including 79% of Democrats, would be satisfied if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee.
Overall, 42% of adults believe Harris would make a good president and 42% say she would not. Thirty-eight percent feel Trump would make a good president and 56% say he would not. People’s outlooks are largely driven by their political affiliations. Most Democrats and Republicans believe their candidate would make a good president and that the other would be a bad one. Close to 3 in 10 independents feel each would be a good fit for office.
Men are more likely to say Harris would be a bad president compared with women (49% v. 36%).
Even when controlling for the effects of partisanship and other demographics, Black adults are more likely to say Harris would be a good president than white adults (69% v. 35%). That’s up from the 48% of Black adults who said the same about Harris earlier in July. A similar shift has happened among Hispanic adults since the same July survey (28% before Biden dropped out v. 45% after).
Only seven percent feel it would be a bad thing if a woman was elected president, with the rest of the public split on whether it’s good for the country or does not matter. Almost no one says it would be bad for a person of color to lead the country. A majority feel it doesn’t matter.
Democrats are more likely than independents or Republicans to say a person of color or a woman serving as president would be a good thing. Still, a majority of independents and Republicans say it won’t make a difference for the country.
Almost everyone has heard at least a little about Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race and most approve of his decision, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. However, there is less support for his choice to endorse Harris or to serve out the remainder of his term. A large majority of Democrats support the endorsement and his decision to remain in office. Two-thirds of Republicans oppose his backing of Harris’ nomination and 4 in 10 oppose his choice to stay in office until the next presidential inauguration.
Both Biden and Trump continue to hold a net negative impression with more adults holding unfavorable than favorable views of each. JD Vance is also more likely to be viewed unfavorably than favorably, but about a third of the public don’t know enough about him to hold an opinion. Views of Harris are divided with 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable.
Democrats have a more favorable opinion of Harris than Republicans do of Vance. Eighty percent of Democrats now have a positive view of Harris, up from the 74% who felt the same way when asked earlier this month before Biden withdrew from the race.
When it comes to possible picks for Harris’ running mate, most do not know enough to have an opinion about Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, or North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who withdrew his name from consideration after the survey was conducted. However, slightly more adults are familiar with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who has the highest favorable rating among Democrats among all of the potential Democratic vice-presidential contenders included in the survey .
Pessimism continues about the state of politics in the country. Close to half are pessimistic about the way leaders are chosen in the United States and the future of both political parties. Even more, 66%, are pessimistic about the state of politics in the country. About 3 in 4 adults feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. These figures are similar to when the questions were last asked in December 2023.
Even though Democrats have more optimism for the state of politics than Republicans (26% v. 9%) a majority in both parties are pessimistic (60% and 73%). Most Democrats are optimistic about their party’s future (57%), while slightly fewer Republicans say the same regarding their party (47%).
The nationwide poll was conducted July 25-29, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,141 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
