As Trump’s hush money case begins, about a third believe he has done something illegal

April 16, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has been criminally indicted in four separate cases. Jury selection started April 15 in New York for the trial where he is alleged to have falsified business documents to cover-up hush money paid to a woman who said he had an affair with her.

Thirty-five percent think he did something illegal regarding the allegation that he covered up hush money payments. Half of the public think he would not be fit for the White House if convicted.

Few are very confident that prosecutors are treating Trump fairly. Nor do they believe that the Supreme Court, other judges, and juries can be impartial in his cases.

Over 4 in 10 say Trump acted illegally in the cases involving classified documents found at his Florida home, his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, and his alleged attempt to interfere in Georgia’s vote count in the 2020 presidential election. About half of the public believe that if Trump is convicted in the classified documents case or either election interference case, he would be unfit to serve as president.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say Trump acted illegally in each of the cases.

Overall, less than a third of the public would consider Trump fit to be president if he were convicted in any of the state and federal cases. Forty-five percent of Republicans would consider Trump fit for office if he were convicted of any of the charges, while 22% would not consider him fit to serve if he were convicted of at least one. Democrats are much more likely to consider him unfit for office across all four cases.

Looking at each case individually, a conviction would not change the minds of most who already believe he did nothing wrong. Still, about 1 in 5 of those who think he did nothing wrong in a case would be at least unsure of his fitness for office if he were found guilty. Only about 40% of those who say he behaved unethically but not illegally would be sure of his fitness for office if he were found guilty.

About half have at least some confidence that the state and federal prosecutors bringing cases against Trump are treating him fairly. About 4 in 10 have little or no confidence that the prosecutors are unbiased. While most Democrats are at least somewhat confident in the prosecutors, only about a quarter of Republicans feel the same.

Only a fifth of the public has a lot of faith that the Supreme Court, judges, or jurors can be fair and impartial in cases involving Trump. Partisans are split on their level of confidence in each. Democrats have more confidence in judges and jurors but less in the Supreme Court than Republicans.

The impact of a conviction on opinions of Trump’s fitness for office may go beyond just being a Democrat or Republican. Even when taking people’s party identification into account, those who are confident in judges and juries are more likely to consider Trump unfit for office if he were convicted.

The nationwide poll was conducted April 4-8, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,204 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.